The Question of the Endgame in Gaza (2)
On January 18, 2025, following the Israeli government’s approval of the Gaza ceasefire, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a statement. He notably declared that Israel retains the right to return to the war, if necessary, with the backing of the US. And in a broad assessment of the war against Hamas and Iran’s Axis of Resistance, he said:
“We eliminated Sinwar, Deif and Haniyeh. We eliminated Nasrallah and the entire Hezbollah leadership. We destroyed most of the weaponry of the Syrian military. We struck the Houthis in Yemen. We acted against Iran. Indeed, we struck all of these very hard, that is to say that we struck the entire Iranian axis very hard – and we are still active.
“Just as I promised you, we have changed the face of the Middle East.”
At the time, I said that Mr. Netanyahu’s perception of the endgame may go far beyond what is foreseen in the ceasefire agreement. For him, returning to the status quo ante even without Hamas would be out of the question.
Today, Israel has returned to war and Mr. Netanyahu is calling the shots across the Middle East.
After fifteen months of war in Gaza and Lebanon, Tehran’s regional outreach is dramatically restricted. As a result of regime change projects designed by the US and Israel, Iraq and Syria, the two countries that once constituted the Arab heartland, are no longer their former selves. Official comments on IDF’s operations in Gaza, extending from meek statements by a few European countries and the Gulf dynasties to fierce criticism by Ankara, only add up to ineffective rhetoric. Washington is more than ever behind Mr. Netanyahu, encouraging him to clean up Gaza. And, with the global chaos Mr. Trump has caused, the war in Gaza is only at the lower end of international headlines.
The Gaza death toll is now above 50,000.
On April 1, the UN accused Israel of killing 15 rescue workers in Gaza as they were trying to aid injured civilians, then buried them in a mass grave. Initially, Israel said nine of the 15 dead were Palestinian militants. It admitted a “mistake” only after the New York Times shared a video of the incident. It also had to confess that the rescue workers were unarmed.
Last week, Defense Minister Katz said that Israel intends to “seize large areas” of the Gaza Strip through an expansion of air and ground operations. The IDF issued an evacuation warning for Palestinians in the entire Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, saying the military was “returning to fight with great force to eliminate the capabilities of terror organizations in these areas.” In the following days, hundreds of thousands of fleeing Gazans sought shelter in one of the largest mass displacements of the war.
According to a report by the UN Human Rights Office, the Israeli government has ratcheted up settlement of the occupied West Bank, including East Jerusalem, transferring its own population into the territory and unlawfully demolishing Palestinian homes as settler violence increased in a climate of continuing impunity.[i]
Also last week, Mr. Netanyahu made a four-day official visit to Hungary, his first to Europe since the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for him over war crimes in Gaza. Hours after he arrived in Budapest, Hungary withdrew from the ICC. All 27 EU members are signatories to the ICC but the enforcement of warrants has long been a divisive issue.
There is no doubt that today’s meetings in Washington between Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Trump will witness further shows of the “family relationship” between the two. According to a statement by the Prime Minister’s office, the two will discuss the tariff issue, the efforts to return our hostages, Israel-Türkiye relations, the Iranian threat, and the battle against the International Criminal Court. Probably, “Israel-Türkiye relations” is mentioned for the first time in such a statement because the two countries, once friends now adversaries, are now in direct conflict in Syria with no others in between like Gaza.
President Trump’s solution for Gaza is sending the Gazans away and building the Riviera of the Middle East. This is what a Le Monde editorial titled “Benjamin Netanyahu’s complete impunity” said on his project: “However, the aim to ‘implement the Trump plan,’ as declared by the Israeli prime minister on March 30, must be taken seriously. It is a case of ethnic cleansing, disguised as a ‘voluntary migration plan’ by Israeli authorities, who announced the creation of a special administration. ‘It is our strategy and we’re not hiding it,’ confirmed Netanyahu”.[ii]
It appears that Mr. Netanyahu’s approach is to reduce the area to rubble, thereby forcing the Gazans to relocate elsewhere. But where?
In November, I wrote that according to the UNHCR, Türkiye is already one of the largest refugee-hosting countries worldwide with millions of Syrians and others. This, I added, is already a huge challenge we must remain conscious of as Mr. Trump’s regional policies start taking shape, because in seeking answers to the question “Where?”, he could also see Türkiye as a potential destination for Gazans given the AKP government’s pro-Palestinian policy. Following Mr. Netanyahu’s visit, a visit to Washington by President Erdoğan is now a certainty.
If the US side were to suggest before or during such a visit that Türkiye should open its doors to Gazans, the Turkish side should categorically reject it because this would mark the end of the Palestinian cause and further aggravate Türkiye’s refugee problem. After all, the AKP government has partnered with the US and Israel in the ouster of President Assad and that is more than enough.
[i]https://www.ohchr.org/sites/default/files/documents/hrbodies/hrcouncil/sessions-regular/session58/advance-version/a-hrc-58-73-aev-1.pdf
[ii] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/opinion/article/2025/04/04/benjamin-netanyahu-s-complete-impunity_6739838_23.html?lmd_medium=email&lmd_campaign=trf_newsletters_lmie&lmd_creation=lemonde_in_english_london&lmd_send_date=20250405&lmd_link=opinion-french-taste_titre_1