President Trump’s Secondary Tariffs
As the relationship between China and the US started to sour after the Nixon-Kissinger years, Washington paid more attention to expanding its cooperation with India as a counterbalance to China. Many visits were exchanged at the highest levels.[i]
On September 21, 2024, Prime Minister Modi met with President Biden on the sidelines of the Quad Summit in Delaware. According to a statement by the Indian Ministry of External Affairs, in a special gesture, President Biden hosted the meeting at his home in Wilmington. Three days later, in a joint Fact Sheet, the two countries affirmed that the US-India Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, the defining partnership of the 21st century, was decisively delivering on an ambitious agenda that serves the global good. The Leaders reflected on a historic period that has seen the US and India reach unprecedented levels of trust and collaboration.[ii]
On February 13, Prime Minister Modi met with President Trump in Washington. The two leaders heaped praise on each other but were careful to avoid, at least publicly, raising the question of tariffs. Nonetheless, Mr. Trump said that he and Prime Minister Modi agreed on negotiations to address the “long-running disparities”.
The ”United States-India Joint Leaders’ Statement” issued after the meeting reaffirmed their unwavering commitment to a dynamic defense partnership spanning multiple domains, their resolve to deepen the US-India trade relationship, and to promote growth that ensures fairness, national security, and job creation. The leaders set a new goal for bilateral trade – “Mission 500” – aiming to more than double total bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. They also agreed that energy security is fundamental to economic growth, social well-being, and technical innovation in both countries.[iii]
The phrase “ensuring fairness” referred to the trade imbalance between the two countries. In 2024, India’s exports to the US totaled US$77.5 billion, whereas its imports were US$40.7 billion.
On August 6, President Trump signed an Executive Order imposing tariffs on India in response to its continued purchase of Russian Federation oil and establishing a process for the potential imposition of similar tariffs on other countries that directly or indirectly import oil from the Russian Federation.
A statement by the White House said, “… India’s importation of Russian Federation oil undermines U.S. efforts to counter Russia’s harmful activities. India’s subsequent reselling of this oil on the open market, often at significant profit, further enables the Russian Federation’s economy to fund its aggression. By imposing a 25% tariff, President Trump aims to deter countries from supporting the Russian Federation’s economy through oil imports and impose serious economic consequences on the Russian Federation for its ongoing aggression.” The tariff on imports from India will become effective on August 27.[iv]
A chorus joined in. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called India’s energy deals with Moscow a “clear frustration” for the President. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said India has not been a “great global actor.” Senator Lindsey Graham accused India of “war profiteering,” and White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller said on Fox News, “People will be shocked to learn that India is basically tied with China in purchasing Russian oil.”[v]
In response, Indian officials have said that they will keep purchasing oil from Russia despite a threat of penalties from President Trump. Foreign Minister Jaishankar called for “a fair and representative global order, not one dominated by a few.” Prime Minister Modi, without mentioning oil imports from Russia, said that India will never compromise on the well-being of its farmers and fishermen, adding, “I know personally I will have to pay a heavy price for it.”
President Trump knows that India will not stop its oil purchases from Russia. Thus, the move to sanction India has two purposes.
Firstly, addressing the trade imbalance between the two countries by raising tariffs and increasing revenues. Reportedly, since April, when Mr. Trump began imposing a 10% tariff, along with several other steeper levies that followed, the government collected a total of $100 billion in tariff revenue, three times the amount collected during the same four months last year.
Secondly, making sure Moscow understands that so long as it continues with the war in Ukraine, Washington will continue imposing more and more tariffs on Russia’s major trade partners, prominently among them China and India. Thus, Mr. Trump hopes that these secondary sanctions would compel New Delhi and Beijing to try convincing Moscow that its war in Ukraine comes at an increasing cost to its trade partners.
However, these secondary sanctions could also bring Moscow and Beijing, on one side, and Moscow and New Delhi, on the other side, closer together. Add to these the 50% tariffs imposed on Brazil. Last week, after a phone call with Prime Minister Modi, President Lula of Brazil told Reuters that he would initiate a conversation among the BRICS group of countries on tackling US President Donald Trump’s levies, which are the highest on Brazil and India.
BRICS countries are not the only ones disturbed by Mr. Trump’s tariff war. The EU has reached a deal, but few EU countries appear to be satisfied with it. In other words, while tariffs bring the US more revenues, they come at a political cost.
It is now agreed that Presidents Trump and Putin will meet on August 15 in Alaska. In an optimistic scenario, this would give Mr. Trump time to decide whether his meeting with the Russian leader allows him to delay sanctions on Russia and the secondary tariff on India, which are to become effective on August 27.
After the announcement of the summit, President Zelensky rejected Trump’s suggestion about “some swapping of territories”. European allies rallied behind Mr. Zelensky. Sadly for Ukraine, what they say would not deter Mr. Trump. He would see their “rallying” no different than their calls for the “two-state solution”. In fact, EU countries and the UK would be more than happy to see the war in Ukraine somehow come to an end. They are more interested in the security guarantees to be offered to Kyiv than the swapping of territories.
Türkiye imports most of its oil and natural gas from Russia, and the prospect of secondary sanctions must have caused concern in Ankara. It is worth remembering in this connection that after the US-UK invasion of Iraq under false premises, Türkiye paid a huge economic price for anti-Iraq sanctions, and a similar experience will lead to enormous resentment across the country. Whether the US would impose secondary tariffs on Türkiye is likely to depend on how far Ankara continues to follow Washington’s lead in redesigning the Middle East.
The initialing of the “Agreement on Establishment of Peace and Inter-State relations between the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Republic of Armenia” by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the parties and the signing of a “Joint Declaration” by Presidents Trump and Aliyev, and Prime Minister Pashinyan at the White House was the highlight of the past week, a diplomatic success for the US President, and a setback for Mr. Putin.[vi] It should be a relief for all that the stagnant Minsk process has thus come to an end.
In a lengthy comment, Russia’s Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova has stated that the Washington summit warrants a positive assessment. She has also underlined that normalization between Azerbaijan and Armenia began with Russia’s direct assistance and central role.[vii]
Many of the world’s conflicts are between neighbors, and in the end, they always become losers. The “initialing” of the peace agreement rather than its “signing” shows that there are still some hurdles to be overcome, one being Baku’s expectation of a change in the Armenian constitution’s definition of national territory.
Both sides should now do their best to resolve the remaining issues, sign and implement the agreement in good faith, put an end to decades of hostility, and thus prove that their display of cordiality at the White House was genuine and not theatre. The Washington summit should also enable Türkiye and Armenia to normalize relations without delay. In regions of conflict, constructive cooperation among regional countries is the only way to prevent the area from becoming a playground for major powers.
[i] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2023/06/26/the-us-china-india-triangle/
[ii] https://www.mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/38323/Joint+Fact+Sheet+The+United+States+and+India+Continue+to+Expand+Comprehensive+and+Global+Strategic+Partnership
[iii] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/02/united-states-india-joint-leaders-statement/
[iv] https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/08/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-addresses-threats-to-the-united-states-by-the-government-of-the-russian-federation/
[v] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/07/india-russia-oil-tariffs-trump-modi/
[vi] https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2025/08/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-visit-US-declaration/
[vii] https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2040852/