President Trump’s New Deadline for Peace in Ukraine
Last week, President Trump said that Russia could be so wealthy, but Moscow spends everything on war, which makes no sense. He also said he decided to reduce the 50-day deadline he had given Russia to end the Ukraine conflict to 10 to 12 days, or face new, punishing sanctions.
Russia is the world’s largest country. From its westernmost point in Kaliningrad to its easternmost point at Cape Dezhnev, Russia covers an immense distance of approximately 9,000 kilometers and 11 time zones. Russia’s north-south dimension is approximately 4,000 kilometers.
President Trump mentioned Russia’s rare earths as part of its riches. There’s much more. Russia ranks first in the world in gas reserves, second in oil production, and third in coal reserves. It is the world’s top country in natural resource value, followed by the US. Thus, Russians indeed have the potential to become one of the world’s richest peoples.
However, this huge country has a population of only 143 million. Its population density is 8.5 inhabitants per square kilometer. In 1991, the population of the USSR, comprising today’s Russia and Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine, and Uzbekistan, was 289 million. However, this did not mean that they were a “nation”. Moscow always knew that those republics were after independence.
Today, China’s population is 1.41 billion but it is declining, prompting Beijing to announce a nationwide childcare subsidy policy to boost the country’s birth rate. Still, China accounts for 17% of the world’s population. India’s population is 1.43 billion. The US population is 347 million.
Moscow views the imbalance between its population and land mass as a long-term security concern.
Beyond that, shaping the Kremlin’s policy on Ukraine are the legacy of the Cold War, the collapse of the Soviet Union, waves of NATO expansion, and the desire to forestall even remotely similar developments in Moldova, the Caucasus, and Central Asia as witnessed by the Russia-Georgia war of 2008, which resulted in the formal recognition by Moscow of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states. Last but not least is Russia’s autocratic tradition.
In mid-December 2021, before the invasion of Ukraine, when Russia presented the West with two draft documents—one on NATO-Russia relations and the other on Russia-US relations—Moscow’s main theme was NATO’s enlargement despite promises made by the West not to expand the Alliance.
The problem is that becoming part of imperial Russia and then the Soviet Union was not those nations’ choice, and once independent, they all saw their membership in NATO as the ultimate guarantee of their security. Moreover, they had lived long enough under authoritarian rule and aspired to democracy.
Unfortunately, their choices have turned Ukraine into a test case for the Kremlin in preventing similar developments in other former Soviet Republics. Currently, Moscow is not facing serious challenges in this regard. However, it worries that growing aspirations for democracy and a more independent foreign policy may change this.
Three days ago, Foreign Minister Lavrov, in response to a media question, underscored the importance of the Russia-US dialogue on Ukraine. He said:
“It is true that we have regular contacts with our American colleagues at various levels, including telephone conversations between our presidents, contacts between Marco Rubio and me, and through United States Special Envoy Steve Witkoff… It is thanks to President Donald Trump’s insistence that the Kiev regime accepted our proposal to resume the Istanbul talks.
“So far, the progress boils down to the fact that our American colleagues have come to realise the existing reality and try taking into account the root causes of the crisis, which sets them apart from the aggressive Russia-hating attitude of the Europeans.”[i]
His remarks reflect the expectation that despite mutual military threats, phone calls between US and Russian leaders and talks among top diplomats, more regular meetings with the Ukrainian side, and prisoner exchanges would somehow allow Russia to keep pounding Ukraine until Moscow decides that the peace formula agreed upon can be presented to the domestic and global audience as a “victory”.
Regarding Mr. Trump’s threat of sanctions, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters last week that Russia has already developed a certain immunity in this regard.
In brief, President Trump’s 10 to 12-day deadline for peace in Ukraine is unlikely to meet his expectations. Last Thursday, speaking to reporters in the Oval Office, Mr. Trump said he was not sure whether sanctions would deter Russia. However, if imposed, secondary tariffs targeting countries that trade with Russia could be a problem for China, India, and Türkiye, three countries dependent on Russian oil and natural gas.
Last Friday, SpaceX launched a Falcon 9 rocket headed to the International Space Station (ISS) from Florida. The rocket is on a mission to deliver a new three-man, one-woman crew to the ISS. The crew consists of two Americans, one Japanese, and one Russian, showing that at least space cooperation is not interrupted for now.
Without a doubt, President Trump enjoys being at the center of global attention as the main figure, especially fond of Oval Office interviews with the media, where he gives instructions to the world. The next three and a half years will be a long performance. For Mr. Trump and his close associates, foreign visitors to the White House are minor characters, there to listen to his comments to the media. So far, Mr. Trump may not have enjoyed his part in the Gaza and Ukraine acts, but for now, he appears to relish the tariff fights, during which his forces have taken over significant enemy territory. These battles are likely to last a long time, and the audience may gradually grow frustrated, start looking at their watches more frequently, and increasingly view him not as a peace-making democrat but as a self-assertive autocrat. Thus, one wonders what the next act of his presidency will be to keep the world focused on the Oval Office.
As for Türkiye, the controversial parliamentary commission to oversee the controversial “terrorless Türkiye process” is now established and will hold its first meeting tomorrow. This entire project reflects selfish and shortsighted political interests and ignores the fact that the only solution to Türkiye’s problems from A to Z is the immediate restoration of democracy, not behind-the-scenes deals.
[i] https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2039314/