Redesigning the Middle East
Since his inauguration, President Trump’s speeches and remarks have only led to confusion and uncertainty regarding his administration’s foreign, security, and economic policies. Reacting to his continuing remarks about Greenland, Denmark announced last week that it would invest 2.05 billion dollars to boost its military presence in the Arctic. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz sharply criticized Elon Musk’s backing of the right-wing parties in the European Union, calling it “really disgusting” and said it was hindering democracy in the bloc. As for his new tariffs, the frontrunner to be the next Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, said his country will “stand up to a bully”.
Although his plan to “clean out the whole thing” in Gaza by sending Gazans to Egypt and Jordan made headlines, many believed that this was to come up at some point. The UN secretary general, António Guterres had warned last October that Israel could carry out the “ethnic cleansing” of Gaza if the international community does not make a determined stand to prevent it because the scope of the Israeli operations there was an indication that the Netanyahu government intended to occupy the Strip for good and send the majority of Gazans elsewhere beyond the borders of Israel. The remaining question was “Where?”
Only days before Mr. Trump’s inauguration, his envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, had suggested relocating a portion of the Gazan population to Indonesia before the beginning of the rebuilding process.
Finally, President Trump answered the question “Where?” During a press gaggle aboard Air Force One on January 25, he said Jordan and Egypt should take in Gazans because the Strip is literally a demolition site where almost everything is destroyed, and where people are dying, adding “I’d rather get involved with some of the Arab nations and build housing at a different location where they can maybe live in peace for a change.”[i] In other words, he was not referring to rebuilding Gaza but rather building homes elsewhere that were funded by rich Arab countries.
He was asked whether this would be a temporary solution and if Gazans would ever be able to return. He said, “It could be either. It could be temporarily, could be long term.”
Egypt, Jordan, and the Palestinian Authority have rejected Mr. Trump’s proposal. However, Mr. Trump has continued to insist that both countries would take in Palestinians from Gaza. A joint statement issued on Saturday, by Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, the Palestinian Authority, and the Arab League, only days before the Trump-Netanyahu meeting in Washington, said that they reject any efforts to encourage the transfer or uprooting of Palestinians from their land, under any circumstances or justifications.
In November I wrote that according to the UNHCR, Türkiye is already one of the largest refugee-hosting countries worldwide with millions of Syrians and others. This, I added, is already a major challenge we must remain conscious of as Mr. Trump’s regional policies start taking shape because in seeking answers to the question “Where?”, while fighting immigration in the US, he could also see Türkiye as a potential destination for Gazans given the AKP government’s anti-Israel stand. If this were to happen, I do hope that the Turkish government would immediately and categorically reject it because this would mark the end of the Palestinian cause and further aggravate Türkiye’s refugee problem.
After all, despite all its anti-Israel rhetoric, the AKP government partnered with the US and Israel in the regime change project in Syria and they should not ask for more.
A look at the map in a recent Washington Post article showing the number of Syrian refugees in Europe clearly shows Türkiye’s refugee burden.[ii] Türkiye also has many more refugees from other countries and Gazans who leave Gaza will never be allowed back.
Mr. Netanyahu visited Washington on January 27, 2020, a year before President Trump’s first term at the White House ended. Mr. Netanyahu mentioned President Truman as the first world leader to recognize the State of Israel after the Declaration of Independence in 1948 but called Mr. Trump “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”.
That day, President Trump announced the “deal of the century”, officially called “Peace to Prosperity”. Two days later, David M. Halbfinger and Isabel Kershner of the New York Times shared their opinion of the deal with their readers. They said:
“President Trump’s Middle East plan deprives the Palestinians of nearly everything they had been fighting for: East Jerusalem as their national capital, the removal of Jewish settlements on the West Bank, and territorial contiguity and control over their own borders and security that a sovereign state normally enjoys.
“While it was always presumed that such a state would be forged through talks with the Israelis, years of failure, a weak and divided Palestinian leadership, and an Arab world that has largely moved on have all emboldened Mr. Trump and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel to try to impose a solution of their own.”[iii]
Five years later, the two are further emboldened. Mr. Trump has won an election victory and Mr. Netanyahu now claims that Israel is changing the face of the Middle East, and whoever cooperates with Israel gains greatly and whoever attacks Israel loses greatly.
On January 9, 2025, the US House of Representatives voted in favor of a bill to sanction the International Criminal Court (ICC) in retaliation for its arrest warrants against Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant by an overwhelming margin, 243 to 140. Last week, Senate Democrats blocked the bill that needed 60 yes votes to advance to a vote on passage in the 100-member Senate. However, it still may be approved with some modifications.
Tomorrow’s talks between the US and Israeli leaders in Washington, on the 486th day of the war in Gaza, would shed some light on their joint plans for the Strip and beyond. As I noted in a recent post, Mr. Netanyahu’s perception of the endgame may go beyond what is foreseen in the ceasefire agreement. For him, a return to the status quo ante bellum in Gaza is unacceptable and what is in store for the West Bank remains a question.
A final note: On August 30, 2024, Türkiye’s Victory Day, a group of lieutenants following their graduation ceremony clamored “We are the soldiers of Mustafa Kemal”, the hero of Türkiye’s War of Independence, the founder of the modern Republic, the great reformer after decades of decadent Ottoman rule, in brief, the leader of the Turkish Revolution. Five of them blamed for having organized “the action”, were taken to the High Disciplinary Committee of the Ministry of Defense. On Friday, in a further push for AKP’s counter-revolution, they were expelled from the armed forces. Tragic times for Türkiye…
[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/press-gaggle-by-president-trump-aboard-air-force-one-en-route-to-miami-florida/
[ii] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/01/31/germany-migration-deportations-syrians/
[iii] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/world/middleeast/trump-peace-proposal-palestinians.html