Türkiye at an Inflection Point
Türkiye’s governing AKP came to power in November 2002. Twenty-three years later, it is still in power. Children who started elementary school in 2002 are now thirty.
In its early years, the AKP appeared to have a democratic agenda. It engaged in economic reform.
At the Brussels summit on December 17, 2004, EU leaders agreed to start accession negotiations with Ankara. These negotiations were kicked off in Luxembourg on October 3, 2005. AKP’s popular support surged. However, while many were happy with the AKP’s performance, some reserved judgment and waited for what could be “in-store”.
In a remarkable development, on January 1, 2005, the new Turkish lira was introduced, replacing the previous lira at a rate of 1 new lira to 1,000,000 old lira. Today, however, one dollar is worth 37.97 liras, up from 1.34 in January 2005.
On April 6, 2009, the newly-elected President Obama arrived in Türkiye after attending a G20 summit in London, a NATO summit in Strasbourg, and an EU summit in Prague. The following paragraph from the speech he delivered before the Turkish Grand National Assembly reflected the purpose of the visit:
“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Atatürk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…”
His message was clear: Türkiye, with its secular democracy, has set an example for the Islamic world. Türkiye should continue this path, and others should follow.
As the “Arab Spring” engulfed the Middle East, what was “in-store” gradually became clear. An essentially Islamist approach started to dominate AKP’s foreign policy. Parallel with that Türkiye’s democratic backsliding started. The Copenhagen criteria were forgotten.[i] Our involvement in the regime change project in Syria proved a disastrous foreign and security policy mistake impacting the country’s demography.
In May 2013, the government’s reaction to the Gezi Park protests dealt a blow to AKP’s relations with the West, particularly with the Obama White House. Mr. Obama turned the Türkiye file to Vice President Biden, who had been Ankara’s arch-enemy in Congress for decades. On his last foreign trip as President, Mr. Obama visited Greece.
On July 15, 2016, Türkiye experienced a failed coup attempt by the Gulenist movement, a former ally of the AKP, now designated as a terrorist organization.
In April 2017, Türkiye voted in a constitutional referendum. With only 51.41% “yes” votes, the country switched from a decades-long parliamentary system to a presidential system that made the separation of powers a myth and allowed for the concentration of power in the president, who could also continue as party chief. Türkiye’s democratic decline gained further momentum.
On March 31, 2019, municipal elections were held in İstanbul, Türkiye’s largest city with a population of fifteen million. The main opposition CHP’s Ekrem İmamoğlu ran against former Prime Minister Binali Yıldırım of AKP. He won the election with a margin of 13,000 votes. The Supreme Electoral Board annulled the result and the election was renewed on June 23. This time, İmamoğlu won by a margin of 750,000 votes.
In May 2023, President Erdoğan was re-elected for a second term.[ii]
On March 31, 2024, Mr. İmamoğlu again won the İstanbul municipal election against the AKP candidate. These two elections were a turning point in his political career making him CHP’s likely candidate at the next presidential election. After all, President Erdoğan also served as Mayor of Istanbul from 1994 to 1998, and those four years opened his way to becoming president. However, article 101 of the Turkish constitution says, “The President of the Republic’s term of office shall be five years. A person may be elected as the President of the Republic for two terms at most.” Regardless, President Erdoğan has signaled that he intends to seek a third term.
On March 19, 2025, Mr. İmamoğlu was detained at his home in a “dawn operation” by security forces, together with a hundred others. Four days later, a court issued a warrant for his arrest. At present, he is in prison waiting for trial. Yet, on Sunday, March 23, Mr. İmamoğlu, became the main opposition party CHP’s presidential candidate.
It has long been clear that AKP was taking Türkiye step by step toward authoritarian rule. It was no secret that the country’s economic decline was taking a growing toll on the population with each passing day. But it seems that the jailing of Mr. İmamoğlu proved the straw that broke the camel’s back. Since March 19, has Türkiye witnessed massive protest demonstrations that must have shocked the AKP leadership. These protests are not only an expression of support for İstanbul’s twice-elected Mayor. They are also a call for returning to the democratic path. Because the protesters firmly believe that Türkiye can unleash its potential only under democratic rule.
The protesters refrained from any violence. However, in some cases, the security forces used unnecessary force and hundreds were detained. The Radio and Television Supreme Council punished the few opposition TV channels for unconvincing reasons.
More than two million people participated in Saturday’s demonstration in İstanbul, which was forceful yet peaceful, making the participants proud.
In brief, Türkiye is in a political and economic crisis. Once looked at with envy by the peoples of the Middle East, Türkiye is now one step away from irreversibly becoming part of the region. The majority firmly object to such a change. They demand a return to Türkiye’s republican values.
There are ways of managing the crisis. However, the only lasting solution would be a broad agreement in parliament on restoring the parliamentary system and holding general elections because the country cannot afford another three years of uncertainty and conflict. In today’s Türkiye, this sounds like an illusion. Nonetheless, after twenty-three years in power, the AKP owes this much to the Turkish people.
[i] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2019/05/31/the-unbreakable-bond-between-turkeys-democracy-and-foreign-policy/
[ii] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2023/05/29/turkiye-chooses-authoritarian-rule-over-democracy/