Times of Trouble
When addressing international questions in my posts, I generally conclude by saying, “As for Türkiye,” and share a few observations on my country’s current challenges. Today, I would reverse the order and briefly start with Türkiye because we are going through tragic times, to say the least.
Dates tell a lot. They provide a summary of history. They also mark tectonic shifts.
The “Commemoration of Atatürk, Youth and Sports Day” is a Turkish national holiday celebrated every May 19. It marks the anniversary of modern Türkiye’s founding father Atatürk’s landing at the Black Sea port city of Samsun in 1919 to raise the flag for our War of Independence. It is a day of joy and pride for the people of Türkiye.
In the future, they will also remember March 19, 2025, the day when Istanbul’s Mayor and the candidate of the main opposition party CHP for the country’s presidency, Mr. İmamoğlu, was apprehended by security forces, together with a hundred others.
Incredibly, this came only two weeks after President Erdoğan, standing next to Prime Minister Tusk of Poland in Ankara, said, “If the European Union seeks to prevent, and even reverse, its loss of strength and altitude, it can only achieve this through the full membership of Türkiye.”
Today, a court in Ankara issued a warrant for his arrest.
What a sad journey from May 19, 1919, to March 19, 2025.
Unlike May 19, March 19 will not be a day to celebrate. It will be remembered as a day marking our further democratic and economic decline.
EU’s Türkiye Rapporteur Nacho Sánchez Amor defined the day as, “Full speed towards a complete authoritarian state.”
According to the World Happiness Report 2025, Türkiye ranks 94th among 147 countries.[i]
Hopefully, in a change of fortune, March 19 would someday mark the beginning of the restoration of Turkish democracy.
As for the US, last week, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell underscored that uncertainty about the economy’s outlook is “unusually elevated” and said the Fed is prepared to be patient and see how the economy evolves before making further moves. He was referring to the Fed’s decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged.
However, “uncertainty” goes beyond interest rates and extends to the future of American democracy, the separation of powers, the independence of the judiciary, and President Trump’s authoritarian tendencies. His call for the impeachment of a federal judge who ruled against his administration on deportation flights triggered a stern statement by Chief Justice Roberts rejecting the idea and asserting the independence of the judiciary. Would this deter Mr. Trump from intervening in the judiciary and setting a bad example for others, elsewhere? No.
Moreover, with President Trump, there is “uncertainty” regarding US foreign policy, the Ukraine conflict, transatlantic relations, the future of the NATO alliance, and European security. Mr. Trump’s unpredictability, and his twists and turns further complicate the picture. This is what Ms. Fiona Hill, a respected Russia expert, who served as deputy assistant to the President and Senior Director for European and Russian Affairs on the National Security Council during the first Trump presidency, said in a Foreign Affairs article in 2021:
“We all knew, for instance, that Trump rarely read the detailed briefing materials his staff prepared for him and that in meetings or calls with other leaders, he could never stick to an agreed-on script or his cabinet members’ recommendations. This had proved to be a major liability during those conversations, since it often seemed to his foreign counterparts as though Trump was hearing about the issues on the agenda for the first time.”[ii]
Following Mr. Trump’s calls with Presidents Putin and Zelensky, an agreement was reached on halting strikes on energy targets for 30 days as a step toward a broader cease-fire. US and Ukrainian teams will meet again in Riyadh in the coming days to resolve technical issues related to implementing and expanding the partial ceasefire.
The critical question for any peace agreement remains the “security guarantees”. President Trump’s solution for Ukrainian security is the rare earths deal, likely to be signed soon, that would lead to considerable US investment in Ukraine and deter Russia from another onslaught. And now, Washington wishes to expand such a deal to Ukraine’s energy plants. To put it bluntly, he is seeking a payback.
Looking at Washington’s and Kyiv’s readouts of the call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky, the latter did his best to put the disastrous White House meeting behind. Considering the recent battlefield developments and President Putin’s desire to secure enough time to consolidate Russia’s territorial gains, perhaps even a partial ceasefire is better than nothing. However, many agree that Moscow will take a tough line at future peace talks. Thus, the challenge remains striking a balance between Russia’s demands and Washington’s desire to put the Ukraine conflict behind.
President Zelensky is upset to see President Biden replaced by Mr. Trump. He might admit someday that Ukraine’s history could and should have been written differently. He invested heavily in his relationship with the former President. Unfortunately, Mr. Biden’s priorities were different than his, the top one being the weakening of Russia.
On Thursday, at a summit in Brussels, European leaders called for the acceleration of work to decisively ramp up Europe’s defense readiness within the next five years. However, Prime Ministers Sánchez and Meloni expressed reservations about the expression “Rearm Europe” given to Ursula von der Leyen’s blueprint to mobilize up to €800 billion for defense over the next four years.[iii]
They also said that a stronger and more capable European Union in the field of security and defense would contribute positively to global and transatlantic security and is complementary to NATO, which remains, for those States that are members of it, the foundation of their collective defense. Jens Stoltenberg, the former Nato Secretary General who re-entered the Norwegian government as finance minister recently said, “If the US should decide to reduce their contributions to NATO, it is even more important that we stand together the rest of us in NATO and step up, as European allies now do.”
While the EU leaders, except Hungary, reaffirmed their continued and unwavering support for Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders, the plan devised by High Representative Kaja Kallas to raise up to €40 billion in fresh military support for Ukraine failed to gain approval.
In brief, the challenges in ensuring European unity and stable transatlantic relations continue.
Notably, on Friday, the German parliament approved a spending plan for up to $1 trillion in defense and infrastructure investments over the next decade.
Amid many uncertainties, what remains certain is Prime Minister Netanyahu’s determination to clear Gaza from Gazans. Last week, Israel launched large-scale air strikes across the Strip, breaking the ceasefire with Hamas that has been in place since late January. Hundreds were killed and injured in the massacre. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz warned that Hamas’s continued rule in the enclave would lead to its “total destruction and ruin.”[iv]
The Interim Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (IRDNA), conducted jointly by the United Nations, the European Union, and the World Bank, provides a comprehensive evaluation of the destruction, economic losses, and recovery needs in Gaza and the West Bank after 15 months of conflict. The assessment highlights severe damage across key sectors, including housing, health, education, commerce, and agriculture, with over 292,000 homes destroyed or damaged, 95% of hospitals non-functional, and an 83% economic contraction in Gaza.[v]
After all, this is the Middle East.
[i] https://happiness-report.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/2025/WHR+25.pdf
[ii] https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russia/fiona-hill-putin-kremlin-strange-victory
[iii] https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_25_793
[iv] https://www.timesofisrael.com/idf-says-troops-operating-in-gaza-katz-warns-of-total-destruction-unless-hostages-returned/
[v] https://palestine.un.org/sites/default/files/2025-02/IRDNA%20-%20Gaza%20and%20West%20Bank%20-%20February%202025_1.pdf