Realignment in the West?
For centuries Europe remained the world’s main battleground. The casualties of the two world wars within four decades dwarfed the losses and devastation of past conflicts. And as the Second World War ended, the Iron Curtain descended across Europe.
On April 4 and May 5, 1949, NATO and the Council of Europe were established. A year later, on May 9, 1950, French Foreign Minister Robert Schuman proposed the creation of a European Coal and Steel Community which brought together Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg in 1952. On March 25, 1957, they created the European Economic Community (EEC). On January 1, 1973, the UK joined the EEC. On February 7, 1992, the Maastricht Treaty created the European Union. Those years witnessed remarkable economic growth and social progress in Western Europe. Despite the withdrawal of France from NATO’s military structure in 1966, the transatlantic relationship was strong. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, EU membership went up to twenty-seven.
In recent decades, the picture began to change. A divide emerged between the ruling elites and the masses. The rich kept getting richer diminishing household confidence in governments. Far-right groups and parties emerged as contenders for power. Political stability could not be taken for granted. Leadership questions started to come up. Migration from former colonies and war zones in the Middle East where the West bears much responsibility for the ongoing turmoil became a problem. And Brexit entered into force on February 1, 2020. Furthermore, on the other side of the Atlantic, the first Trump presidency led to questions about American democracy. Thus, democracy’s decline became a current topic. Western public discourse on democracy began to lose its appeal. Some started to question transatlantic solidarity.
This is how François Godement described today’s picture in an INSTITUT Montaigne article:
“An era has ended, where our last three generations, at least in Western Europe, happily spent their lives, even when they did not know their happiness. International treaties had become worth more than the paper they were written on. Internationally recognized borders were intangible. Democracy in the modern sense – not in the original sense where leaders were within earshot of their constituents on the agora – was first of all about the rule of law, respect of a constitutional order and of its institutions. Democracies, even if frayed at the edge, were at the core of an alliance system. International aid was another pillar of a world where humanity was a recognized concept. And yes, America functioned as a benevolent hegemon, with its keen attention to self-interest balanced by a long view – whether this was about prosperity or about Manifest Destiny… That era is over.”[i]
On February 19, 2021, at the 2021 Virtual Munich Security Conference, President Biden addressed the global community for the first time. He defined the partnership between Europe and the US as the cornerstone of all the West hopes to accomplish in the 21st century, just as it did in the 20th century. He said the transatlantic alliance is back.
Almost exactly a year later Russia invaded Ukraine. And today, Mr. Trump is back and the transatlantic alliance is at a more critical point than four years ago.
On the third anniversary of the invasion, the world witnessed what some called the “fracturing” of the US-Europe relationship. Western headlines said Mr. Trump’s reversal of Washington’s Ukraine policy “shocked allies”.
Following Mr. Trump’s reversal of policy President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer “rushed” to Washington to use the word in many headlines. However, their host refused to commit to deploying US forces to support a European-led peacekeeping force as a backstop to deter Russia from invading again. All Mr. Starmer was promised, in exchange for an exceptional invitation by King Charles to Mr. Trump for a second state visit to the UK, was a trade deal which, considering Mr. Trump’s admitted fondness for the word “tariff”, was a remarkable promise. In brief, the two visits only served to acknowledge Mr. Trump’s supremacy. A day after Mr. Macron’s visit, Secretary of State Rubio, in an interview with Fox News, said:
“… with all due respect to President Macron, he’s not President Trump. President Trump is a different person, very different. Also represents the United States, which I think is the only country in the world and President Trump is the only leader in the world that could actually get Putin to agree to a peace.” [ii]
Does this apply to Mr. Starmer also? Probably. After the fiery exchange at the White House, Mr. Rubio publicly asked President Zelensky to apologize. And, as if to underline a contrast, he issued a statement that said:
“I have signed a declaration to use emergency authorities to expedite the delivery of approximately $4 billion in military assistance to Israel. The decision to reverse the Biden Administration’s partial arms embargo, which wrongly withheld a number of weapons and ammunition from Israel, is yet another sign that Israel has no greater ally in the White House than President Trump.”
What happened during President Zelensky’s visit to the White House has shocked the West. The adjectives rightly used to describe the appalling discussion before the media were more appropriate for a street fight than diplomacy. Mr. Zelensky’s and his team’s mistake was to ignore a conventional rule of diplomatic practice: Use a translator in a critical high-level discussion unless you have mastered your counterpart’s language.
After Mr. Trump’s reversal of Washington’s policy on Ukraine, I opined that if his words were to be matched with action in the months ahead this would have lasting consequences for trust in the Trump White House, US foreign and security policy, relations with NATO allies, and relations with allies/partners in the Indo-Pacific.
The Zelensky visit will reverberate across the world for years. It will further erode trust in the US, the Trump administration, and American democracy. And when the next US president claims, like Mr. Biden, that “the transatlantic alliance is back” there will be few cheers.
“We have to take our destiny in our own hands,” French statesman Dominique de Villepin said. “Stop believing in illusions. Trump is abandoning Ukraine and [Elon] Musk is supporting extremist movements in Europe because they want a weaker EU. They understand that Europe is now the main obstacle for their vision. And this is, of course, not acceptable.”[iii]
The truth is that European countries have enjoyed the US defense umbrella for decades and are unlikely to construct a new European security architecture on their own. Despite their vocal expressions of continuing support for Ukraine, they would be happy to see the war end somehow, sooner rather than later. But “to make their case”, they would offer Kyiv a fast-track membership in the EU. They would continue to insist on a US backstop for their peace-keeping force schemes. However, who would be at the helm in Kyiv in the months ahead might impact their choices because President Zelensky is now a lost cause for the Kremlin and the White House. Yesterday, US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz mentioned that in July 1945, Winston Churchill, Britain’s immensely popular leader during the Second World War lost the election in a stunning electoral swing.
Needless to say, tensions have to be calmed and the US-Europe rift needs to be healed. Prime Minister Starmer who defines the UK-US relationship as the closest one in the world is looking for a central role, together with France, in mending transatlantic ties. The two countries are Europe’s nuclear powers and members of the UN Security Council. At this point, however, European leaders should avoid giving the impression of another “rush” to the White House. This is when to close ranks and chart, within the limits of the possible, a long-term policy that would take more than one meeting of leaders. Hasty appeals to Mr. Trump for “benevolence” over the White House mishap would only play into his hand. And Germany must form a new government as soon as possible. As for the “rare earth deal that Mr. Zelensky said he is ready to sign, it might be advisable to do this in London rather than Washington to avoid another unpleasant encounter.
At the end of yesterday’s summit in London, Prime Minister Starmer said that the UK, France, and others have agreed to work with Ukraine on a plan to stop the fighting – this plan will be discussed with the US and together they will take it forward.[iv] In the event of a peace deal, there would be a “coalition of the willing” to defend Ukraine and guarantee peace. Mr. Starmer also said that “a number” of other nations had indicated that they could join Britain and France and deploy troops to Ukraine if a cease-fire was agreed upon between Kyiv and Moscow. He did not name those countries. Two weeks ago, following the meeting of European leaders in Paris, Prime Minister Scholz had called the idea “premature”. Polish Prime Minister Tusk had reportedly said they do not want their military imprint on Ukraine’s soil. At the time, reportedly, President Macron was non-committal.
Mr. Starmer also announced that on Saturday the UK signed a £2.2 billion loan to provide more military aid to Ukraine backed, not by the British taxpayer but by the profits from frozen Russian assets.
In brief, the White House ordeal is unlikely to trigger a realignment in the West, at least for now. This will be another week of hectic diplomacy between the two sides of the Atlantic, and tomorrow President Trump’s State of the Union Address will be anxiously watched across the West.
Last week, following a cabinet meeting, President Erdoğan said, “It is only Türkiye and its full membership that can throw a lifeline to Europe, whose economy and demographic structure are aging rapidly. The sooner the EU faces this reality, the better off it will be. As has always been, we desire to move forward with our membership process on the basis of mutual benefit and respect in a constructive spirit. With the necessary determination, we can achieve results quickly.”[v]
Türkiye’s AKP government came to power twenty-two years ago. In its early days, it engaged in democratic and economic reform. In October 2005, Ankara launched accession talks with the EU. However, neither the EU was happy to launch the accession process nor the AKP determined to remain on the democratic path. Today, the accession process is dead and buried for good. Nonetheless, both Türkiye and the EU need a correct and more constructive relationship, and recent developments may offer a window of opportunity as signaled by Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan’s participation in the London meeting of leaders. To seize that opportunity Ankara must restore its democracy and parliamentary system without delay. Even without any prospect of accession to the EU, the AKP owes this to our people and to its supporters who have kept them in power for more than two decades. The lack of progress in Türkiye-EU relations must not become a justification for our joining the ranks of authoritarian regimes. The Trump White House is not an example to follow.
Returning to the democratic path is the only remedy to our multiple domestic and international challenges. It is the only way to enhance our global status. The West is at an inflection point. Sir Starmer said the world is at a crossroads in history. This is the moment for Türkiye to act, to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that we remain committed to democratic rule. We must not allow this opportunity, with multiple rewards, to slip away. And we need to act today, not tomorrow, and not the day after tomorrow.
[i] https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/expressions/after-munich-new-normal?utm_source=salesforce&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=montaigne-expressions&utm_term=germany-usa-godement
[ii] https://www.state.gov/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-with-brian-kilmeade-of-fox-news/
[iii] https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/01/trump-is-abandoning-ukraine-and-wants-a-weaker-eu-dominique-de-villepin-on-europes-moment-of-truth?CMP=share_btn_url
[iv] https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/pm-remarks-at-international-leaders-summit-press-conference-2-march-2025
[v] https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/156751/-only-turkiye-can-save-the-european-union-from-the-deadlock-it-has-fallen-into-