Israel’s Time of Troubles
The Hamas onslaught of October 7 has been described by many as a “shock” for Israel. In terms of its violence, indeed it was a shock, but considering the misery, subjugation, and deprivation in Gaza, next to one of the world’s most prosperous and advanced countries, and growing international apathy toward the Palestinian question, a local outburst was only to be expected. Recently, Professor John Mearsheimer, a prominent critic of US foreign policy, called the situation in Gaza, “apartheid”.[i] And no wonder that the case against Israel was brought to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) by South Africa whose President Cyril Ramaphosa said that as a people who once tasted the bitter fruits of dispossession, discrimination, racism, and state-sponsored violence, they are clear that they will stand on the right side of history.
The acts of revolting violence committed during the attack rallied the West solidly behind Israel. The onslaught was condemned in the strongest possible language and Israel’s right to defend itself was given unequivocal support. Later, however, the ferocity of the Israeli military campaign, the increasing number of civilian casualties, among them thousands and thousands of women and children, and the devastation of the Strip gradually led to a change in Western public discourse. Regardless of what is said publicly, in the world’s opinion, both Hamas and the IDF have committed war crimes in Gaza, but while the former is a radical Islamist group, regarded by the West as a terrorist one, the latter is the regular army of a democratic state enjoying highly advanced military capabilities whose methods of war eventually became increasingly troubling. Thus, last week Israel was faced with new shocks.
On Monday, Karim Khan, the chief prosecutor of the ICC, announced that he was seeking arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and three other Hamas leaders — Yehya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh — accused of being responsible for war crimes and crimes against humanity.[ii]
Accusations against the Israeli leaders include starvation of civilians, willfully causing great suffering, serious injury to the body, willful killing, intentionally directing attacks against a civilian population, extermination and/or murder, and other inhumane acts.
Accusations against Hamas leaders are extermination, murder, taking hostages, rape and other acts of sexual violence, torture, other inhumane acts, cruel treatment, and outrage upon personal dignity.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, other Israeli leaders, and Washington reacted sharply to Mr. Khan’s move. After congressional hearings last week, Secretary Blinken suggested that he will work with lawmakers on potential sanctions against the International Criminal Court. He was referring to a Republican push to impose sanctions on ICC officials which could prove a problem for Washington’s global image.
European countries were divided, but the majority expressed support for the ICC and its independence. When, on 17 March 2023, the ICC issued arrest warrants for President Putin for war crimes committed during the war in Ukraine and for Ms. Lvova-Belova, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the President of the Russian Federation, for the unlawful deportation of Ukrainian children, the West was pleased.
On Wednesday, expressing support for the two-state solution, the Spanish, Irish, and Norwegian governments announced last week that they would recognize the Palestinian state. In response, Israel ordered the return of its ambassadors from the three countries in a conventional diplomatic reaction of dissatisfaction to a development between countries.
In response to the Israeli criticism that the move constitutes a reward for Hamas terrorists, Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide said that the emergence of Hamas is a result of the lack of progress toward the two-state solution, adding that they are supporting not Hamas but the Palestinian Authority who renounced violence many decades ago, a promise they have kept. It appears that some other EU members may follow suit. But France said that conditions were not right to officially recognize a Palestinian state and that such a decision must be more than just symbolic or political posturing. Paris usually enjoys being uniquely positioned.
Sweden was the first EU member to recognize a Palestinian state in 2014. Other EU member states that have already recognized a Palestinian state are Bulgaria, Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Malta, Poland, and Romania. But they had taken the step before joining the EU.
Finally on Friday, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the UN’s top court, by thirteen votes against two, delivered its Order on the request for provisional measures submitted by South Africa on 10 May 2024 in the case concerning the Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip. The Court’s Order tells Israel to,
· immediately halt its military offensive, and any other action in Rafah,
· maintain open the Rafah crossing for unhindered provision at scale of urgently needed basic services and humanitarian assistance; open the Rafah border crossing with Egypt for the entry of humanitarian aid at scale,
· take effective measures to ensure unimpeded access to the Gaza Strip of any commission of inquiry, fact-finding mission, or other investigative body mandated by competent organs of the United Nations to investigate allegations of genocide, and
· report to the Court within a month on its progress in applying these measures.[iii]
The court has no means of enforcing its orders, but its decisions carry international weight.
In brief, the past week was more than a challenging one not only for Mr. Netanyahu but also for Israel because altogether they represented a decline in Western support and whatever international understanding existed not only for the current Israeli government but Israel’s long-time policies as well. Israeli leaders were united in their immediate condemnation of the ICC Chief Prosecutor’s requests for arrest warrants against Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and the recognition of the Palestinian state. Their reaction to the Order of the ICJ was more measured except the far-right. The question in the days ahead would be whether or not the three developments would unite the Israelis and if this would turn into greater domestic support for Mr. Netanyahu.
The Prime Minister has so far given no indication that the developments of the past week will make him change course. However, the White House readout of National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s recent meetings in Israel said “Minister Gallant and General Halevi briefed Mr. Sullivan on new alternative approaches to defeating Hamas in Rafah to address the concerns that have been expressed by the US side through the Strategic Consultative Group process. The two sides agreed to continue discussions. Mr. Sullivan reaffirmed the United States commitment to securing the release of all hostages held by Hamas.” And Israel’s war cabinet has once again instructed negotiators to resume talks on a hostage-prisoner exchange.
It is worth remembering in this context that in January, Mr. Netanyahu reportedly told local council chiefs from communities near Gaza that he anticipated the war against Hamas would extend into 2025.
The IDF is continuing with its operation in Rafah but it would probably be more careful to avoid the high loss of civilian life among Gazans and the further devastation of the Strip. This could allow Mr. Netanyahu to survive as prime minister until the US presidential election on November 5, 2024. If not, then a new government would have to face the intractable problems of dealing with the immediate challenges in Gaza and the consequences of Israel’s long-term policies. However, despite Israel’s growing international isolation, a dramatic change in the short term is not in the cards.
This is also high time for the Palestinian side to put its act together and emerge with a leadership that would inspire confidence in the world if it is to move forward on the path toward the two-state solution.
Another shocking development of the past was the death of Ebrahim Raisi, Iran’s President and a top contender to succeed the nation’s supreme leader, together with Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian, and seven others in a helicopter crash. President Raisi was not another President Muhammad Khatami who sought moderation on domestic issues and Tehran’s foreign policy. Hopefully, the final findings of Tehran’s inquiry will provide not only the people of Iran but also the world with satisfactory answers.
[i] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAfIYtpcBxo
[ii] https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state
[iii] https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20240524-pre-01-00-en.pdf