The New Year Begins with Uncertainties
Toward the end of 2024, Germany and France were engulfed in domestic political problems. Romania’s constitutional court annulled the country’s 2024 presidential election. Georgia remained in political turmoil. South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol’s declaration of martial law created havoc, and the National Assembly impeached him in a second vote. The US and its European allies continued providing Ukraine with economic and military assistance. Their motto has always been “as long as it takes”. However, such references became increasingly questionable. Mobilization became unpopular in Ukrainian society. By contrast, Russia regained momentum. Though welcomed, the fall of the Assad dynasty created anxiety not only in Syria but also in the Middle East. The war in Gaza continued with no end in sight.
The weeks and months following President-elect Donald Trump’s assumption of office on January 20, would offer clues as to how the new American administration will approach today’s international challenges.
Recently, the Biden administration again provided Kyiv with substantial military assistance. However, European countries are getting weary of the war despite the usually thunderous remarks of some European leaders, among them the EU Commission President von der Leyen.
In early 2024, President Macron said there was “no consensus” on committing ground troops to the conflict in Ukraine but added, “Nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war.”
In June 2024, on D-day, in remarks to the media with President Biden on a state visit to France, President Macron announced that Paris would transfer Mirage-2000 fighter jets to Ukraine and train their pilots. In October, it was announced that the first batch of Mirage 2000-5s jets for Ukraine would include three planes to be delivered in the first half of the new year. However, a Ukrainian pilot has reportedly said that these fighter jets are only for ground strikes since Russian air superiority capabilities would limit the French jets’ effectiveness in direct air combat. In other words, this will change little if anything on the battlefield despite the tough talk.[i]
On 26 September 2022, a series of underwater explosions and consequent gas leaks rendered 3 of 4 Nord Stream pipes inoperable. Responsibility for the sabotage is still unknown though many have some ideas. On the first day of the new year, Kyiv announced it would not renew a deal allowing Russian gas to transit its territory. The pipeline had carried Siberian gas to European markets for decades and was Russia’s last major gas corridor to Europe following the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany. Though the share of Russian gas in the European market has dropped dramatically since the invasion of Ukraine, Slovakia, Hungary, Austria, and several Balkan countries, particularly Moldova have, up to now, used Russian gas delivered through Ukraine. This is why Prime Minister Robert Fico of Slovakia who met with President Putin in Moscow in December objected to Kyiv’s decision.
In today’s unruly world and the uncertainty in Western politics, charting a way toward peace in Ukraine remains a huge challenge. It is likely to prove a test for European solidarity. However, since Russia’s being turned into a non-major power remains an impossibility, any progress toward peace would be a relief for the people of Ukraine and Europe and other countries in Russia’s “near-abroad”. One may remember in this connection that at NATO’s Bucharest Summit of April 3, 2008, the Alliance agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO. It also declared support for the territorial integrity, independence, and sovereignty of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and the Republic of Moldova, raising doubts in Moscow that Ukraine’s joining the West would not be the end of the story.
Thus the Western world is now waiting for Mr. Trump who has privately said that he could end Russia’s war in Ukraine by pressuring Ukraine to give up some territory. His proposal consists of pushing Ukraine to cede Crimea and the Donbas border region to Russia. How much he would consult Washington’s Western allies before starting to act, and whether he would first meet with President Zelensky or President Putin are immediate questions. Interestingly, where the American and Russian leaders would meet is already a subject of speculation. Some, eager to host such a meeting, should know that this would be seen as a “favor” by both leaders and come at a price.
As former President, Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel. Soon after, the US officially opened its Embassy there, making the US the first nation to do so. Then came the Abraham Accords. On January 28, 2020, Prime Minister Netanyahu met President Trump at the White House. The former called Mr. Trump “the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House”. And the so-called “Deal of the Century”, a simply pro-Israel peace plan was announced only to be forgotten soon after. Thus, President Trump has already proven a strongly committed supporter of Israel. Yet, he may already have asked Mr. Netanyahu to “finish the job” in Gaza in time, regardless of the cost for Gazans because he would prefer to focus on Russia and China.
Mr. Trump has offered few clues regarding his approach to developments in Syria. However, the US political and military establishment is likely to push for maintaining a military presence in Syria. In mid-December, Washington doubled American troop numbers “fighting jihadists” in Syria, to around 2,000. Around 2,500 US troops are also deployed in Iraq.
Last week, France, being “part of the international coalition against the Islamic State group since 2014”, French aircraft bombed Islamic State positions in Syria, Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on December 31, in its first such strike on the country’s soil since the fall of Bashar al-Assad.[ii] The bombing is probably more of an expression of support for Western cooperation with PYD/YPG than a threat posed by IS. For the West, this has always been common practice in former colonies. For Mr. Macron, this could also be an attempt to distract attention from recent difficulties with former colonies in Africa and emerge as Mr. Trump’s leading European partner, a task easier said than done.
The reunification of Syria under an embracive new administration is likely to prove the country’s greatest challenge since independence, with external powers intervening, meddling, if not militarily, politically in its domestic affairs. How lucky, we Turks were to have an enlightened leader, a great military strategist and commander, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk waging our War of Independence when the decadent Ottoman Empire was becoming history. All the Syrians have at this time is Ahmed Hussein al-Sharaa, also known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani.
For years US administrations have expressed a desire to “pivot to Asia”. The Arab Spring turmoil, the war in Ukraine, and the war in Gaza did not allow for that. This also seems to be among Mr. Trump’s principal foreign policy objectives. The Biden administration spent every effort to strengthen US alliances in the Indo-Pacific. President Trump may focus more on trade relations with China than the scenarios of military confrontation.
As for Türkiye, the government is enjoying its role in the regime change in Syria, particularly since it has proved a welcome distraction from Türkiye’s economic downturn. The Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek recently said that the annual inflation for the past year would be only 44-45% and made optimistic predictions for the next year. And President Erdoğan, advised “patience”. One way or the other, patience has become Turkish people’s way of life over the past twenty-two years, patience, endless patience, even endurance…
On December 30, 2024, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan called for improved ties with the EU, saying that after the visit to Ankara of EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen, he believed there was a desire on both sides to restart a high-level political dialogue between Türkiye and the bloc. Mr. Fidan added that it was time to get back to a more fruitful relationship after years of tensions, calling for a return to a “pre-Sarkozy” era – a reference to former French president Nicolas Sarkozy, in power from 2007 to 2012, who firmly opposed Turkey’s membership of the EU. He said that with Türkiye Europe could become a “center of gravity”. And he suggested a “merit-based path to membership”.[iii]
This is indeed the aspiration of the Turkish people but the first step on this merit-based path must be restoring Turkish democracy. Had we remained on that path, regardless of the future of the membership process, today Ankara would have become the Northern Star of the Middle East. Our “achievement” in Syria will never get us anywhere, remotely close to that.
[i] https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/27/ukraine-to-use-french-mirage-jets-for-ground-strikes-not-air-combat-says-ukrainian-pilot/#:~:text=and%20services%20development.-,Ukraine%20to%20use%20French%20Mirage%20jets%20for%20ground%20strikes%2C%20not,in%20a%20specialized%20tactical%20approach.
[ii] https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/12/31/syria-france-claims-strikes-on-is-positions_6736590_4.html#
[iii] https://www.france24.com/en/video/20241230-en-wb-extrait-mae-turc-fidan-relations-with-eu