Türkiye at an Inflection Point
The history of Türkiye-West relations over the last fifteen years has been characterized by a lack of meaningful dialogue, unfriendly rhetoric, and confrontation despite a promising beginning.
In April 2009 President Obama came to Ankara on his first bilateral visit to Europe as president. He started his address to the Turkish parliament with the following:
“This morning I had the great privilege of visiting the tomb of your extraordinary founder of your republic. And I was deeply impressed by this beautiful memorial to a man who did so much to shape the course of history. But it is also clear that the greatest monument to Atatürk’s life is not something that can be cast in stone and marble. His greatest legacy is Turkey’s strong, vibrant, secular democracy, and that is the work this assembly carries on today…”
His message was clear: Türkiye, with its secular democracy, has set an example for the Islamic world. It should continue marching forward on this path and others should follow. Unfortunately, with Türkiye’s democratic decline, exactly the opposite happened. Thus, Mr. Obama gave up on Ankara and left the bilateral relationship with Vice President Biden, the leading adversary of Türkiye in the US political establishment.
The beginning with President Trump started with some hope. President Erdoğan’s first visit to the Trump White House was on May 16, 2017. Following the talks, the two leaders made statements to the media.
President Trump said, “Turkey was a pillar in the Cold War against communism. It was a bastion against Soviet expansion… Turkish soldiers fought bravely alongside of American soldiers in the Korean War, and we haven’t forgotten what they did… Today we face a new enemy in the fight against terrorism, and again we seek to face this threat together… We support Turkey in the first fight against terror and terror groups like ISIS and the PKK, and ensure they have no safe quarter… We also appreciate Turkey’s leadership in seeking an end to the horrific killing in Syria… Military equipment was ordered by Turkey and the President, and we’ve made sure that it gets there quickly…”
However, on July 25, 2017, Ankara signed a deal to acquire the Russian S-400 air defense system. This was a price to be paid for shooting down a Russian Su-24 military plane for having violated Turkish airspace for 17 seconds. On April 4, 2019, the US stopped the delivery of F-35 equipment to Türkiye, ending its partner status in the production program. On May 18, 2019, President Erdoğan said the purchase of S-400s from Russia was a done deal. The missiles have been delivered but remain non-operational.
On October 9, 2019, the Turkish Armed Forces, together with the Syrian National Army, an anti-Assad military force, launched a major operation against the PKK/YPG in northern Syria. In protest, President Trump sent an undiplomatic letter to President Erdoğan.[i] Nonetheless, he was invited for a second visit to Washington in November 2019. At the White House, he met with President Trump, and senators Joni Ernst, Jim Risch, Ted Cruz, Rick Scott, and Lindsey Graham, one of President Trump’s staunchest allies. The senators expressed strong criticism of Türkiye’s incursion into Syria. Regardless, during a brief news conference after their meeting, President Trump again heaped praise on the Turkish leader, saying he was a “big fan” of Erdoğan. His guest called President Trump “my dear friend.” During the following two years, there was no progress in relations.
On January 20, 2021, Mr. Biden was sworn in as the 46th President of the US. With President Biden’s well-known hostility toward Türkiye and Ankara’s continuing democratic decline, there was no hope for a reset. Ankara’s becoming the leading critic of Israel’s operations in Gazza marked yet another division with Washington on top of the disagreements over the S-400s and the F-35s.
During those years, Türkiye’s relations with the EU were also marked by a lack of dialogue. The accession process was dead and buried. The EU’s sole interest became the prevention of migration.
At the end of November, came Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) lightning offensive. During the first few days, Ankara denied involvement and remained quiet. Later, President Erdoğan called the regime change “a magnificent victory.” “The most important thing was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure that they didn’t enter the equation militarily. We had meetings with (them) and they understood,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Türkiye’s NTV television. But the scale of the collapse of Assad’s forces took them by surprise. They quickly realized the game was up, that Assad “was no longer someone to invest in” and “there was no point anymore,” the Minister added.
To ensure Türkiye’s cooperation in Syria, Secretary Blinken visited Ankara. The State Department’s announcement of the visit mentioned Türkiye as a “valued NATO ally” for the first time in a long time. Later, developments in Syria triggered an unexpected and almost orchestrated barrage of praise, compliments, and flattery by the Western media, and most remarkably by President-elect Mr. Trump for President Erdoğan, Türkiye’s role and power in the Middle East, and its defining role over future developments in Syria.[ii]
On December 17, the President of the EU Commission von der Leyen met with President Erdoğan in Ankara. In remarks to the press with President of Türkiye Erdoğan she said:
“Türkiye has an essential role to play in stabilizing the region. Together, we must also remain vigilant against terrorism. The risk of a Daesh resurgence, particularly in eastern Syria, is real. We cannot let this happen. Türkiye’s legitimate security concerns must be addressed. At the same time, it is important to allow all Syrians, including all minorities, to be safe.
“Today, we also discussed the relationship between Türkiye and the European Union. Our relationship is as rich as it is complex. But one thing is clear: it is moving forward. For good reasons, one of my first travels at the beginning of my second mandate brings me here to Ankara.”
“Our economic relationship is stronger than ever. The numbers speak for themselves. Trade between us hit a record high of EUR 206 billion last year. The European Union is Türkiye’s largest trade and investment partner. Our intention is to strengthen this further.
“I also look forward to resuming discussions on a modernized Customs Union. We both have a lot to gain here. However, as we discussed, progress will require stronger efforts. Specifically, we need to address a number of trade barriers.” [iii] (emphasis added)
Finally, she highlighted Türkiye’s role as a key partner in managing migration along the Eastern Mediterranean route.
On the surface, this was a “somewhat” different public discourse. However, if I were to ask myself, “Would the Commission President have rushed to Ankara at the beginning of her second term in office to deliver such remarks had it not been for the developments in Syria?”, my answer would be, “Absolutely not.”
This recent wave of praise by the West, particularly by Mr. Trump was warmly welcomed by the AKP government and its supporters. The opposition and government critics have focused on Western “expectations” from Ankara and the price Türkiye would be asked to pay for a “new deal”. Thus, Türkiye is now immersed in endless speculation about the future “deals”, and “give-and-take” in Syria and beyond.
Understandably, many are concerned that the US and Israel would at least be after the PYD/YPG’s remaining in control of a large territory in northeastern Syria, and the recognition of an autonomous Kurdistan Region in Syria under the authority of these groups. This would make the autonomous Kurdish regions of Iraq and Syria neighbors to the satisfaction of the West and Israel on the path toward a Kurdish state. Others speculate that the US and Israel would seek Türkiye’s cooperation against Iran.
Speculation over what they would offer Ankara in return extends from economic and financial support, and Türkiye’s return to the F-35 production program to wild guesses about territorial expansion, and even a mutually advantageous restoration of relations with Israel. After all, the downfall of the Assad dynasty was always among Israel’s top foreign and security objectives and Türkiye was instrumental in accomplishing just that. In other words, Türkiye’s contribution to the downfall of the Assad dynasty and the weakening of Syria since 2011 far outweighs Ankara’s condemnation of Israel’s massacres in Gaza that have led to the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court for Mr. Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant. Thanks to the uncertainty in Damascus, Israel is now bombing and invading Syrian territory unopposed, with plans for annexation in mind.
In brief, Ankara is at an inflection point in defining its future foreign and security policy with direct implications for its domestic peace and stability. This calls for calm, realism, national dialogue, and unity. All major policy decisions must be discussed and approved by parliament. They must prioritize national interest over ideology.
Türkiye shares a 910-kilometer border with Syria, a 378-kilometer border with Iraq, and a 560-kilometer border with Iran. Thus its top priority must be regional stability, and not more proxy wars since this is neither in our interest nor the interest of our Western partners. Ankara must also admit that the only condition for Türkiye’s enhanced global status is returning to the democratic path, over and above questionable partnerships in regime change projects. This is a most rewarding, yet easily achievable objective.