31 Mart yerel seçimlerinin sonuçlarını doğru okuma zorunluluğu bütün siyasi partiler için gerekli.

AK Parti'nin yaptığı ilk analizler muhasebede isabet edildiğini gösteriyor.

Ancak asıl kritik husus muhasebenin sonucunda toparlanma ve yenilenme için hangi somut adımların atılacağı, bunların zamanlaması ve iletişim yönetimi.

Bir yandan hızlı hareket ederek teşkilat ve tabanda küskünlüklere, dağılmaya sebebiyet verilmemeli.

Diğer yandan değişimin ertelenmesinin seçmenin verdiği tepkinin kemikleşmesiyle sonuçlanması riski var.

Dünkü yazımda belirttiğim gibi Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın siyasi tecrübesi ve dehası bu sentezlemeyi suhuletle yapma noktasında AK Parti için büyük bir avantaj.

AK Parti yerel seçimlerde birinci parti olmadığını önümüzdeki dört yıl unutmadan siyaset yapmak durumunda.

***

Yerel seçimlerde birinci parti konumuna gelmeyi en iyi analiz etmesi gereken elbette CHP.

Milli gelirin yüzde 73.5'inin CHP'nin belediyeleri kazandığı illerde elde edildiği göz önünde bulundurulursa bu belediyelerin performansı 2028 seçimlerini belirleyecek.

Yine bu dört yıl CHP'nin yerelde birinci parti olarak nasıl bir siyaset yapacağı da önemli olacak.

CHP Genel Başkanı ile İBB Başkanı İmamoğlu'nun ilk açıklamaları, bu partinin yerel seçimleri kazanmanın rehavetine kapılmaması gerektiğinin farkında olduğunu gösteriyor.

Özel'in "Bu sonuçlar bizi kibirlendirmeyecek" cümlesi buna bir örnek.

Ya da İmamoğlu'nun CHP'de "değişimin devam etmesi" gerektiğini söylemesi de diğer bir örnek.

Ancak CHP'nin Mayıs 2023 seçimlerinden görülen ideoloji, kimlik ve hatta parti liderliği alanındaki krizlerinin 31 Mart başarısı ile çözüldüğü söylenemez.

***

Ayrıca Özel'in seçim akşamı konuşmasında Türkiye İttifakı'na fazla anlam yüklediği görülmekte:

"Siyasi partilerle değil Türkiye'nin demokratları ile büyük bir birlikteliği kuran Türkiye ittifakı kazanmıştır."

CHP'nin tabanda ittifak kurma iddiası partilere rağmen midir?

İyi Parti'nin hür ve müstakil siyaset iddiasına rağmen bir kısım seçmeninin CHP'li adaylara oy vermesini engelleyemediği ortada.

Ancak genel seçimlerde aynı olgunun yaşanıp yaşanmayacağını bilmiyoruz.

Yine DEM Parti'nin stratejik oy kullanan seçmeninin İstanbul başta olmak üzere bazı yerlerde CHP'li adaylara oy vermesi "taban ittifakı" mıdır?

Bence CHP, taban ittifakını sağladığına pek güvenmemeli.

CHP'lilerin "sosyal demokratlardan, liberallerden, muhafazakârlardan, Kürtlerden, milliyetçilerden oluşan tabandaki buluşma" şeklinde tarif ettikleri Türkiye ittifakı önümüzdeki dönemde ciddi meydan okumalara tabi olacak.

En çok da kendine ideolojik ve siyasi alan açmak isteyecek DEM Parti tarafından bu meydan okuma üretilecek.

CHP, 6'lı Masa ittifakının yerine koyulan bu muğlak ve içi boş söylemin içini doldurmak zorunda ve bunu Kürt milliyetçilerine, Türk milliyetçilerine ve sol siyasete hitap ederek aynı anda yapmak durumunda.

AK Parti'nin kendi tepkili muhafazakâr seçmenine yeniden ulaşması durumunda CHP'nin bazı dini sembolleri kullanması yeterli değil.

CHP öğrenme ve değişim sürecinde ancak başardık diyerek taleplerini çoğaltacak sert çekirdeğini yönetebilecek mi?

***

Özel'in katılmadığım seçim sonucu okumalarından birisi de seçmenin "halkçı CHP belediyeciliğini benimsediği" iddiası.

AK Parti'den öğrenilen sosyal belediyecilik ve halkla iletişim uygulamaları dışında etkili bir hizmet tecrübesi ortada görünmüyor.

Zaten seçmen CHP belediyeciliğini değil ekonominin sorunlarını değerlendirmesinin odağına koydu. Asıl zor soru şu:

Özel, İmamoğlu ve Yavaş'ın aynı anda güçlendiği CHP nasıl bir CHP'dir?

İmamoğlu ve Yavaş yeni bir CHP getiriyor.

Bu yeni CHP'yi ideolojik tabanı ve teşkilatı kendi gerçek CHP'leri olarak görecek mi?

CHP, işte tüm bunları DEM Parti'nin olası iddialı siyasetinin yükleriyle birlikte cevaplayabilir mi?

It is necessary for all political parties to read the results of the March 31 local elections correctly. The first analyzes made by 

the AK Party show that the accounting has been corrected. 

However, the real critical issue is what concrete steps will be taken for recovery and renewal as a result of accounting , their timing and communication management. 

On the one hand, we should not act quickly and cause resentment and disintegration in the organization and its base. 

On the other hand, there is a risk that postponing the change will result in the voters' reaction becoming ossified. 

As I mentioned in my article yesterday, President Erdoğan's political experience and genius are a great advantage for the AK Party in making this synthesis easily. 

The AK Party has to do politics for the next four years without forgetting that it is not the first party in the local elections.

***

Of course, it is the CHP that should best analyze its position as the leading party in the local elections. 

Considering that 73.5 percent of the national income is obtained in the provinces where the CHP won the municipalities, the performance of these municipalities will determine the 2028 elections. 

Again, it will be important what kind of politics CHP will do as the leading party in the local area in these four years. 

The first statements of CHP Chairman and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor İmamoğlu show that this party is aware that it should not be complacent about winning local elections. 

Özel's sentence "These results will not make us arrogant" is an example of this. 

Or İmamoğlu's statement that "change should continue" in CHP is another example. However, it cannot be said that the CHP's crises in ideology, identity and even party leadership

, seen in the May 2023 elections, have been resolved with the March 31 success . 

***

In addition, it is seen that Özel gave too much meaning to the Turkey Alliance in his speech on the election evening : 

"The Turkey Alliance, which established a great unity with Turkey's democrats, not with political parties, won." 

Is CHP's claim to form an alliance at the grassroots level despite the parties? It is obvious that despite 

the İyi Party 's claim of free and independent politics, it could not prevent some of its voters from voting for CHP candidates. 

However, we do not know whether the same phenomenon will occur in the general elections. 

Again, is it a "grassroots alliance" when DEM Party 's strategic voters vote for CHP candidates in some places, especially in Istanbul

? In my opinion, CHP should not be too confident that it has achieved grassroots consensus . The Turkish alliance, which CHP members describe as "the grassroots gathering of social democrats, liberals, conservatives, Kurds and nationalists", will be subject to serious challenges in the coming period. This challenge will be posed mostly by the DEM Party, which will want to open up ideological and political space for itself . CHP has to fill in this vague and empty discourse that replaces the Table of Six alliance , and it has to do this by appealing to Kurdish nationalists, Turkish nationalists and left politics at the same time. If the AK Party is to reach its own reactive conservative voters again, it is not enough for the CHP to use some religious symbols. Will CHP be able to manage its hard core, which will increase its demands by saying "we only succeeded" in the process of learning and change? 

***

One of Özel's readings of the election results that I disagree with is his claim that the voters "adopted the populist CHP municipalism". There does not appear to be any effective service experience other than the social municipality and public communication It is necessary for all political parties to read the results of the March 31 local elections correctly.

The first analyzes made by the AK Party show that the accounting has been corrected.

However, the real critical issue is what concrete steps will be taken for recovery and renewal as a result of accounting, their timing and communication management.

On the one hand, we should not act quickly and cause resentment and disintegration in the organization and its base.

On the other hand, there is a risk that postponing the change will result in the voters' reaction becoming ossified.

As I mentioned in my article yesterday, President Erdoğan's political experience and genius are a great advantage for the AK Party in making this synthesis easily.

The AK Party has to do politics for the next four years without forgetting that it is not the first party in the local elections.

***

Of course, it is the CHP that should best analyze its position as the leading party in the local elections.

Considering that 73.5 percent of the national income is obtained in the provinces where the CHP won the municipalities, the performance of these municipalities will determine the 2028 elections.

Again, it will be important what kind of politics CHP will do as the leading party in the local area in these four years.

The first statements of CHP Chairman and Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality Mayor İmamoğlu show that this party is aware that it should not be complacent about winning local elections.

Özel's sentence "These results will not make us arrogant" is an example of this.

Or İmamoğlu's statement that "change should continue" in CHP is another example.

However, it cannot be said that the CHP's crises in ideology, identity and even party leadership, seen in the May 2023 elections, have been resolved with the March 31 success.

***

Moreover, it seems that Özel gave too much meaning to the Türkiye Alliance in his speech on the election evening:

"Türkiye won the alliance, which established a great unity with Turkey's democrats, not with political parties."

Is CHP's claim to form an alliance at the grassroots level despite the parties?

It is obvious that despite the İyi Party's claim of free and independent politics, it could not prevent some of its voters from voting for CHP candidates.

However, we do not know whether the same phenomenon will occur in the general elections.

Again, is it a "grassroots alliance" when DEM Party's strategic voters vote for CHP candidates in some places, especially in Istanbul?

In my opinion, CHP should not be too confident that it has achieved grassroots alliance.

The Turkish alliance, which CHP members describe as "the grassroots gathering of social democrats, liberals, conservatives, Kurds and nationalists", will be subject to serious challenges in the coming period.

This challenge will be posed mostly by the DEM Party, which will want to open up ideological and political space for itself.

CHP has to fill in this vague and empty discourse that replaces the Table of Six alliance, and it has to do this by appealing to Kurdish nationalists, Turkish nationalists and left politics at the same time.

If the AK Party is to reach its own reactive conservative voters again, it is not enough for the CHP to use some religious symbols.

Will CHP be able to manage its hard core, which will increase its demands by saying "we only succeeded" in the process of learning and change?

***

One of Özel's readings of the election results that I disagree with is his claim that the voters "adopted the populist CHP municipalism".

There does not appear to be any effective service experience other than the social municipality and public communication practices learned from the AK Party.

In fact, voters focused on the problems of the economy, not CHP's municipalism. The real hard question is:

What kind of a CHP is the CHP where Özel, İmamoğlu and Yavaş are strengthened at the same time?

İmamoğlu and Yavaş are bringing a new CHP.

Will the ideological base and organization of this new CHP see them as their real CHP?

Can CHP answer all of these along with the burdens of the DEM Party's possible assertive politics?practices learned from the AK Party . In fact, voters focused on the problems of the economy , not CHP's municipalism. The real difficult question is: What kind of CHP is the CHP where Özel, İmamoğlu and Yavaş are strengthened at the same time? İmamoğlu and Yavaş are bringing a new CHP. Will the ideological base and organization of this new CHP see them as their real CHP? Can CHP answer all of these along with the burdens of the DEM Party's possible assertive politics ?