Toward a More Transactional Relationship
President Trump’s inaugural address lasted for thirty minutes.[i] He said little about the guiding principles of Washington’s future foreign and security policy. He once again stressed that America would soon be greater, stronger, and far more exceptional than ever before and respected all over the world.
Since Washington always claims to be the leader of the democratic world and exceptional, one would have expected him to say a few words about promoting democracy.
President Trump used the word “democracy” just once.
He said, “My recent election is a mandate to completely and totally reverse a horrible betrayal and all of these many betrayals that have taken place and to give the people back their faith, their wealth, their democracy, and, indeed, their freedom.”
During his first term, Mr. Trump had paid his first official visit to Saudi Arabia. Last week, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman became the first foreign leader he spoke with. During the call, Prince affirmed the Kingdom’s intention to broaden its investments and trade with the United States over the next four years, in the amount of $600 billion, and potentially beyond that.[ii]
Also last week, Mr. Trump told reporters that although a new American president’s first foreign visit abroad had typically been to the UK, he decided to go to Saudi Arabia the last time because they agreed to buy 450 billion dollars worth of American products, adding that if they are ready to buy another 450 or 500 billion dollars worth of American goods he might go there again. Finally, in his video message to the World Economic Forum, he said he would ask Prince Salman to increase his promise of investment to $1 trillion and ask both Saudi Arabia and OPEC to bring down the cost of oil because if the price came down, the Russia-Ukraine war would end immediately.[iii]
During remarks to the World Economic Forum, he also said that he would ask all NATO nations to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP, which they should have done years ago.
President Trump’s speeches and remarks during his first week in office, particularly his references to China, Russia, and Washington’s relations with its NATO allies have led to further confusion regarding his administration’s foreign, security, and economic policies. Unsurprisingly, his plan for Gaza to “clean out the whole thing” made headlines. Moreover, despite growing concerns about the rise of the far-right across Europe, Mr. Trump’s “second vice-president” Elon Musk made a surprise video appearance at Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland’s election campaign in Germany on Saturday.
Türkiye, in economic decline, is in no position to match a Saudi investment in the US economy. On the contrary, Türkiye itself is desperate for foreign investment. Moreover, any government engaging in talks with the Trump administration has to be strong at home whereas Türkiye is in domestic turbulence. The only medicine the government prescribes for our pains is higher and higher doses of “patience”.
On August 30, 2024, Türkiye’s Victory Day, a group of lieutenants following their graduation ceremony clamored “We are the soldiers of Mustafa Kemal.” They were reaffirming their commitment to the legacy of the leader of Türkiye’s War of Independence and the founder of the Republic, Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Now, some of them, blamed for having organized “the action”, are waiting for the decision of the High Disciplinary Committee of the Ministry of Defense regarding their future. Underlying their plight are Atatürk’s reforms also covering secularism, an anathema to the AKP. Unfortunately, neither they nor other Middle Eastern leaders, barring a few exceptions, have been able to understand what secularism could mean for their peoples and the region still suffering from sectarian conflict.
During the past few months, two prominent mayors of İstanbul districts and the leader of a political party were arrested, and the mayor of İstanbul is under investigation. Thus, the politicization of the judiciary has become a highly controversial issue. Opposition leaders say that the jailings are moves aimed at instilling fears of persecution across the spectrum, thus perpetuating AKP’s and President Erdoğan’s rule.
On top of political tensions and confusion came the disastrous hotel fire at a ski resort which caused nearly eighty deaths triggering accusations, finger-pointing, and denials of responsibility; deepening the mood of doom and gloom in the country; and dealing another blow to Türkiye’s global image.
With Türkiye’s confusing political landscape and economic troubles, the give-and-take of a perspective Trump-Erdoğan deal has become a concern despite the former’s praise for the latter.
The readout of Secretary Rubio’s recent call with Turkish Foreign Minister Fidan, after mentioning Türkiye’s role as “a key NATO Ally” and “shared interests in the region” says that the Secretary highlighted the need for an inclusive transition in Syria, ensuring that the new government prevents Syria from becoming a source for international terrorism, and denying foreign malign actors the opportunity to exploit Syria’s transition for their own objectives.[iv] The readout offers a clue as to the content of a deal with Ankara. The deal would primarily focus on Syria. It would not be a relationship reset but a transactional one, perhaps with some sweeteners allowing Ankara to declare victory. Thus, the remaining question would be linking the deal with the government’s indirect talks with PKK leader Öcalan.
[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/the-inaugural-address/
[ii] https://www.spa.gov.sa/en/N2248412
[iii] https://www.whitehouse.gov/remarks/2025/01/remarks-by-president-trump-at-the-world-economic-forum/
[iv] https://www.state.gov/secretary-rubios-call-with-foreign-minister-fidan/