Türkiye’s Support for Ukraine and Membership in BRICS
The year 2023 was a tough one for Ukraine. Its spring offensive failed. The US military aid started coming after months of delay. Mobilization became unpopular in Ukrainian society. In brief, it became increasingly clear that a Ukrainian victory against Russia was not in the cards.
Some Western observers presented the Ukrainian incursion into the Russian province of Kursk in early August 2024 as an important military achievement. In an article on September 5, Anatol Lieven said that while legally and morally justified, the attack has failed in all its objectives.[i] In brief, the battlefield developments of the past two years have not supported President Zelensky’s expectations of a future victory over Russia.
Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Western countries have provided Ukraine with increasingly powerful weaponry and ammunition.
In May 2023, the US allowed its Western allies to supply Ukraine with advanced fighter jets, including American-made F-16s.
Earlier, in an interview with Tagesspiegel on January 29, Chancellor Scholz had reacted to the Ukrainian demand for fighter aircraft since he was focused on the delivery of German-made Leopard 2 tanks. “The fact we’ve only just made a decision [on sending tanks] and the next debate is firing up in Germany, that just seems frivolous”, he said. Today, NATO countries are providing Ukraine with F-16 aircraft and training their pilots.
On July 7, 23, days before NATO’s Vilnius Summit, the White House National Security Advisor Jack Sullivan announced confirmed that the US would send cluster munitions to Ukraine. At the time, this led to strong criticism from humanitarian groups, met with the disapproval of some members of the US Congress, and created unease in some NATO capitals because the Convention on Cluster Munitions (CCM), had been adopted in Dublin on May 30, 2008, and opened for signature in Oslo on December 3 of the same year.
In May 2024, President Biden gave Ukraine the go-ahead to use American weaponry to strike targets inside Russia for the limited purpose of defending Kharkiv. However, American officials underscored that the US policy calling on Ukraine not to use American-provided ATACMS or long-range missiles and other munitions to strike offensively inside Russia has not changed.
Finally last week, the UK Foreign Secretary Lammy told the BBC that the delivery of Iranian missiles to Russia has changed the debate about Ukraine using Western-provided long-range missiles against targets inside Russia.
On September 11, at a joint press availability in Kyiv with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Sybiha and the UK Foreign Secretary Lammy, Secretary Blinken addressed the issue in response to a question. He said that he and Mr. Lammy will take what they learned back to President Biden and Prime Minister Kramer and the two leaders will meet in just a few days in Washington to discuss how the two countries will continue to support Ukraine. The Guardian reported that this was Blinken’s strongest hint yet that the White House is about to lift its restrictions on Ukraine using long-range weapons supplied by the West on key military targets inside Russia, with a decision understood to have already been made in private.[ii]
The next day, in response to a question, President Putin said, “ This will mean that NATO countries – the United States and European countries – are at war with Russia.”[iii]
President Biden and Prime Minister Kramer met in Washington last Friday. Little was said on the question after their talks. With another three months at the White House, could President Biden take such a decision? Normally, one would expect him to leave that to his successor because this would represent a serious escalation in the war. Moreover, such a move could be untimely, coming only days before the high-level General Debate of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly scheduled to start on September 24, 2024. But now, reportedly, Britain and the US have raised fears that Russia has shared nuclear secrets with Iran in return for Tehran’s supplying Russia with short-range ballistic missiles. All this prompts me to ask if the West could have handled the question of Ukraine and the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) differently.
Beyond the speculation over the supply of long-range missiles, the “Fourth Summit of the International Crimea Platform” witnessed strong statements in support of Ukraine. The Platform is an international consultation and coordination format initiated by Ukraine on August 23, 2021.
Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, in a video message to the Platform, said, “Dear Ukrainians, the EU is your home. That is why we are determined to support you for as long as it takes with military, financial and political support.”
On the same day, Secretary Blinken addressed the 4th Crimea Platform in Kyiv. He concluded his remarks with the following:
“In Crimea – and in all of Ukraine – Ukrainians fight for the inalienable right of people to choose their own future, and to have their human rights respected. They fight for the right of nations to have their sovereignty, their territorial integrity, their independence respected – principles at the very heart of the United Nations Charter.
“That’s why we are proud to join Ukraine in reaffirming, today and every day: Crimea is Ukraine.”
Addressing the Platform NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg highlighted that NATO’s support will “help Ukraine defend itself today and deter Russian aggression in the future. He also said, “Ukraine’s future is in NATO and it is on an irreversible path to membership… With NATO’s continued help, Ukraine will prevail as a sovereign, independent, and democratic nation.”
President Erdoğan also sent a video message to the “Fourth Summit of the International Crimea Platform”.
In his video message, after mentioning the tragic expulsion by Moscow of Türkiye’s Crimean Tatar kinsmen at the end of the Second World War, he said: “The suffering was exacerbated by the annexation of Crimea, which Türkiye opposed from the beginning and refused to recognize. Our support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence remains unwavering. International law mandates that Crimea be returned to Ukraine… It is our sincere aspiration that the war will conclude with a fair and enduring peace that is founded on Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and independence.”[iv]
Interestingly, the message came when Türkiye’s prospective membership in BRICS became an issue of concern for some Turkish observers. So far, this remains somewhat of a puzzle. Because, despite on-and-off expressions of intent to join BRICS by the governing AKP government, the people of Türkiye only learned from Yuri Ushakov, President Vladimir Putin’s foreign affairs aide, that Ankara has officially applied “for full membership” in the bloc that Russia chairs this year and the application will be considered.
Can one imagine any other NATO member taking a remotely similar step without a public discussion in its parliament? No. Has the AKP government explained to its people the reasoning behind this decision? No. Do Turks know if the AKP government has fully reviewed the implications of such a step for its status in NATO? No. Are Turks concerned about their country joining BRICS? No. Why not? Because, in the first place, the mood in the country is one of resignation, apathy. This is precisely why I said above that membership in BRICS became “an issue of concern for some Turkish observers” with whom I agree. Secondly, Turks’ perception of the West is increasingly similar to that of the Global South countries.
On September 6, two days after Mr. Ushakov’s remarks, Foreign Minister Lavrov was asked about Ankara’s application.
He said, “I am operating on the assumption that the national leadership has serious intentions when it makes such statements… The main requirement for full members of the group and countries that are developing various forms of cooperation with it is to share common values. It is not the values the EU is defending in Ukraine, claiming that Ukraine is protecting “European values” and so they must protect these “values” too.” [v]
He then added, “At last year’s summit in Johannesburg, it was decided to instruct the ministers of foreign affairs and experts to prepare recommendations on the criteria to be applied to a new category of colleagues invited to BRICS events – partner countries.”
The next BRICS summit will be held in Kazan, Russia on 22 – 24 October 2024. In other words, in another month the puzzle will be solved. But the path to Kazan would require some groundwork.
The harmony between the messages of President Erdoğan and Secretary Blinken to the Crimea Platform was remarkable. Indeed, Ankara has never recognized the annexation of Crimea by Russia, but the timing of such strong emphasis on Ukraine’s territorial integrity, sovereignty, and independence was interesting. Perhaps, the Turkish President’s message was intended to show the West that even if Ankara were to join BRICS, it would remain “on the same page” with her NATO allies.
At first sight, one may think that such a strong message would not please Moscow. However, when weighed against the advantages of Türkiye’s further breaking away from the West, it is only a detail to be overlooked. Nonetheless, Moscow while supporting Ankara’s bid for membership, might choose to qualify its initial response.
Ankara is likely to present its membership in, or partnership/association with BRICS as a new dimension of its so-called “balancing act” between the West and other major powers. Considering Türkiye’s democratic decline and the West’s lack of strategic vision, this should not surprise anyone. Once Türkiye joins BRICS, the next chapter will be how to deal with the repercussions of Türkiye’s membership in BRICS for our membership in NATO. The questions “Who lost Türkiye?” or “Who lost the West?” are unlikely to come up, ever.
[i] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/ukraine-war-2669129882/?ct=t(RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN)&mc_cid=11902fe750&mc_eid=cca9360155
[ii] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/11/blinken-hints-us-will-lift-restrictions-on-ukraine-using-long-range-arms-in-russia
[iii] http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75092
[iv] https://www.iletisim.gov.tr/english/haberler/detay/president-erdogan-sends-video-message-to-fourth-summit-of-the-international-crimea-platform-24
[v] https://mid.ru/en/press_service/video/posledniye_dobavlnenniye/1968303/