A Brief Look at Middle East’s Recent History
For decades, the Middle East landscape has been shaped by wars, major power competition, landmark peace treaties among regional adversaries that unfortunately failed to embrace the broader region, and external military interventions. Its history has been marked by conflict rather than stability. The following are some of the highlights of the region’s recent past:
On September 17, 1978, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin signed the historic Camp David Accords, which outlined “A Framework for the Conclusion of a Peace Treaty between Egypt and Israel.” On March 26, 1979, the Egypt-Israeli peace treaty was formally signed in Washington, making Egypt the first Arab country to officially recognize Israel. In exchange, Israel withdrew from the Sinai. However, in reaction to the treaty, the Arab League suspended Egypt’s membership. It was readmitted to the League in May 1989, and the League’s headquarters was moved back to Cairo the following year, signaling a change in the Arab perception of regional challenges.
December 25, 1991, marked the end of the Soviet Union. President Mikhail Gorbachev resigned and was replaced by Boris Yeltsin. The subsequent years were characterized by instability and decline in Russia.
In March 2003, the US launched a military invasion of Iraq, based on allegations that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed weapons of mass destruction and had ties to terrorism. Despite the lack of conclusive evidence, the invasion led to the rapid toppling of Saddam’s government. By December 2003, Saddam was captured, tried, and executed in 2006. The invasion destabilized Iraq as well as the region, leading to years of insurgency and the rise of extremist groups like ISIS, which became an even greater challenge.
On December 31, 1999, President Boris Yeltsin announced his resignation, and Vladimir Putin became the acting president. He won the March 26, 2000, presidential elections and has remained in power ever since.
On December 17, 2010, Tunisian fruit and vegetable vendor Mohamed Bouazizi set himself on fire, triggering the Arab Spring protests. Tunisia’s authoritarian President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali fled to Saudi Arabia, becoming the first leader of an Arab nation to be pushed out by popular protests. A month later, on February 11, President Mubarak resigned and handed the country’s control to the military. The next leader to fall was Muammar al-Qaddafi of Libya after four decades in power.
On December 6, 2017, President Trump recognized Jerusalem as the capital of the State of Israel. On May 14, 2018, the US officially opened its Embassy there, making the US the first nation to do so.
Then came the Abraham Accords. UAE and Bahrain were the first Arab countries to sign the Accords on September 15, 2020, normalizing relations with Israel. Later, Sudan and Morocco followed suit. Washington started encouraging Saudi Arabia to join the group.
On October 7, 2023, Hamas attacked Israel. Since then, the Gaza death toll has gone up to 55,000. Alongside its operations in Gaza and the West Bank, Israel effectively destroyed Iran’s proxies in the region.
President Assad of Syria survived the Arab Spring wave of protests and bloodshed longer than others. However, in December 2024, after thirteen years of internal fighting, loss of life, and devastation, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a jihadist group linked to al-Qaida, became a proxy that could oust the Assad regime particularly when Hezbollah, Iran’s principal partner in the “Axis of Resistance” was dealt a serious blow in Gaza and Lebanon putting Tehran on the retreat, and Russia remained bogged down in the war in Ukraine.
Thus, President Assad was ousted from power in barely two weeks. Following his fall, Ahmed al-Sharaa, the leader of the Islamist militant group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), became Syria’s President. In response to his welcome rise to power, the West started to lift its anti-Syria sanctions. Ankara cooperated with the US and Israel in bringing down the Assad regime, and rejoiced at the change. Al-Sharaa is now a “popular figure” in the West.
After the fall of the Assad regime, Israeli forces moved to control a large “demilitarized buffer zone” in Syrian territory. Israeli airstrikes against Iran are now carried out over Syrian airspace. Iraq has not only condemned the Israeli attack against Iran, but it has also submitted a formal complaint to the UN Security Council over Israeli violations of Iraqi airspace.
Among the conclusions to be drawn from this brief chronology and the developments in between are the following:
Western interventions in the Middle East have brought neither democracy nor economic prosperity to countries that were the subject of those interventions.
It was those failures that recently prompted President Macron to ask, “Does anyone think that what was done in 2003 in Iraq was a good idea? Does anyone think that what was done in Libya the following decade was a good idea?”
During the times of Jamal Abdel Nasser, Saddam Hussein, Muammar al-Qaddafi, and the Assad family, the Soviet Union had considerable leverage in the Middle East. During the years of political and economic instability in Russia, Moscow’s regional outreach diminished, the last episode being the regime change in Syria. This is precisely why President Trump dismissed President Putin’s offer of mediation between Israel and Iran in a phone call on Tuesday, telling him Russia should end its own war in Ukraine first.
In parallel with Russia’s diminishing regional outreach and with Iran’s expanding regional clout through proxies, Egypt and the Gulf dynasties have moved closer to the US and Israel.
Despite their usual words of support for the Palestinian cause and their calls for the “two-state solution”, Arab countries, as compared to the past, have significantly distanced themselves from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Establishing relations with Israel is no longer seen as a betrayal of the Palestinian cause.
Throughout these years, the US commitment to Israel’s security has remained iron-clad. Some European countries kept mentioning their support for the “two-state solution”, but these were just words.
Eventually, Tehran became the principal supporter of the Palestinian cause, to some extent to enhance its regional status, but also to unite the people of Iran behind the regime. Starting with the war in Gaza, this policy has now backfired.
Thus, Prime Minister Netanyahu is now empowered to impose his “Israeli rules-based regional order” on the Middle East. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently said that Israel “has the courage” to do “the dirty work for all of us” by attacking Iran.
The principal objectives of this new order are regime change in Iran and the resolution of the questions of the West Bank and Gaza for good. Mr. Netanyahu may also have further regional projects. As for regime change in Iran, a Guardian article draws attention to the complexities of such an endeavor, saying that there are no internal organized government in waiting; political parties are effectively banned; many of the best voices are either in jail, ageing, exiled, under house arrest or working in the margins as lawyers, artists or trade unionists.[i]
Reportedly, President Trump is warming up to the idea of joining Israel in striking Iran’s nuclear sites. If that were to happen, while the regional countries would simply watch, the broad Middle East would witness years of further turmoil.
For now, it seems that Mr. Trump is fully enjoying being on the center stage with the rest of the world waiting for his decision to strike or not to strike Iran. Reportedly, there are some hesitations in Washington regarding the successful destruction of the Fordow nuclear site with blockbuster bombs. There must also be profound worries about the risks of nuclear contamination that could haunt the US for decades and decades, and trigger huge waves of migration.
Since Iran is an important supplier of oil to China, it would be interesting to see how and where Beijing would react to Washington’s joining Israel in strikes on Iran.
As for Türkiye, we are now walking a tightrope between the contradictions of our foreign and security policy.
Why have the Arab countries and Iran failed in making the Middle East a region of peace, stability, and prosperity despite their oil wealth? Because they were not lucky enough to have their Atatürk, a leader of exceptional vision. Why is Türkiye in decline? Because the AKP has made its fight against Atatürk’s legacy a party priority.
[i] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/19/an-implosion-a-collapse-or-a-transition-what-would-regime-change-in-iran-look-like?CMP=share_btn_url