Ukraine Conflict in Its Fourth Year
President Trump likes being on the center stage at all times, prefers communicating his messages personally, and enjoys press gaggles. His messages, remarks, threats, and flip-flops are confusing and have introduced an element of unpredictability into US foreign policy on a wide range of issues, including the war in Ukraine. And he constantly berates his predecessors, blaming them for failures.
On September 25, 2024, weeks before the US presidential election, he said:
“Look at the war in Ukraine. And I think it’s something we have to have a quick discussion about because the president of Ukraine is in our country and he’s making little nasty aspersions toward your favorite president, me. But take a look at the war happening right now in Ukraine. It would have never happened if I were president to start off with. And there didn’t even have to be a settlement. It wouldn’t have happened, period. Russia wouldn’t have gotten in. And I spoke to Putin about it a lot.”
Since assuming office, Mr. Trump has made similar remarks. He has focused on his deal-making capacity. This is understandable to a certain extent. Had conventional wisdom, respect for democracy, a sound world outlook, and consistency characterized his messages and policy, I would have summarized his remarks as, “The Ukraine story could and should have been written differently.” And, I would have readily agreed with him.
During the last three years, Ukrainian soldiers, civilians, the elderly, Ukrainian women, and children have displayed remarkable courage and resilience in the face of Russian attacks. Their calm, their poise under the most tragic circumstances are beyond praise.
But the sad reality is that thousands of Ukrainians have lost their lives. Many parts of Ukraine have been devastated. Crimea is gone. Ukraine will lose more territory to Russia. Ukraine will not join NATO. The remaining critical questions are how much territory Ukraine would lose and what kind of “security guarantees” would be offered to Kyiv.
Yet, in February 2023, following his visit to Kyiv, which was reported under the title, “Biden’s Surreal and Secretive Journey into a War Zone” in The New York Times, Mr. Biden went to Warsaw, where he said, “One year ago, the world was bracing for the fall of Kyiv. Well, I’ve just come from a visit to Kyiv and I can report Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud, it stands tall and most important, it stands free,” as a crowd, many waving American flags, cheered underneath cold rain. “Ukraine, Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never,” Biden said to applause.[i]
President Putin’s initial plan was to invade the entire Ukraine in a blitzkrieg. He failed. Does this represent a victory for Ukraine? No. In a nutshell, this is exactly why history could and should have been written differently. The West and Russia should have tried harder to avoid war and engage in intense diplomacy. In all fairness, that was not done. All the Biden administration cared about was keeping Russia bogged down in Ukraine. Lost lives and ruined homes hardly mattered.
On the way home, Mr. Trump also criticized the Russian President. “There was no reason for Putin to be shooting missiles into civilian areas, cities and towns over the last few days,” he wrote. “It makes me think that maybe he doesn’t want to stop the war, he’s just tapping me along.”
Indeed, it is high time for President Putin to stop military operations to capture more territory at a great cost to both sides. The invasion and annexation of an independent country or “conquest” is a thing of the past. Moreover, even if “peace” were to be achieved today, enmity between Russia on the one side and Ukraine and the West on the other side, resulting from Kyiv’s territorial losses, will last for decades. This would not serve Russia’s long-term interests.
As for Türkiye, detentions and arrests targeting Mr. İmamoğlu and the İstanbul Metropolitan Municipality are continuing, making the politicization of the judiciary our number one topic. The incredible cost of the arrest campaign by the AKP has taken the economy to further depths. Moreover, the AKP leadership now appears determined to accelerate the Canal İstanbul project, creating yet another political fault line.[ii] In brief, our decline continues.
[i] https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/21/politics/joe-biden-poland-trip/index.html
[ii] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2020/01/28/the-montreux-convention-russias-perspective/