The Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Blitzkrieg
After thirteen years of internal fighting, loss of life, and devastation, the five-decade-long Assad regime was swept away in barely two weeks. President Hafez al-Assad, the father, was the President of Syria from 1971 until his death in 2000. He was Türkiye’s one and only regional enemy for years. For a decade, President Bashar al-Assad had the opportunity to transform Syria. Unfortunately, he was forced by the Syrian deep state to press ahead with his father’s autocratic rule, failed to moderate the regime, got Syria engulfed in the tremors of the Arab Spring, and caused much suffering. After all, democracy is not part of the Middle East’s political culture, but authoritarianism is. Nonetheless, he deserves credit for putting relations with Ankara on the right track in close cooperation with the AKP government.
Looking back, one may say that the US-Israel-led Western project to remake the Middle East started with Iraq and continued with the Arab Spring regime change projects in Libya and Syria. After a long stalemate in Syria, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an increasingly well-trained and well-equipped jihadist group linked to al-Qaida, became a proxy that could challenge the Assad regime. The lightning speed of the HTS offensive was a huge surprise. Still, those aware of the group’s growing military capability might have predicted it was coming because the offensive was launched at a time when Hezbollah, Iran’s principal partner in the “Axis of Resistance” was dealt a serious blow in Gaza and Lebanon putting Tehran on the retreat. Russia remained focused on the war in Ukraine before Mr. Trump’s return to the White House.
In a recent post, I speculated that the rebel offensive could be an attempt to oblige Mr. Trump to engage in another far-reaching Middle East project going beyond Gaza and Lebanon to redraw regional maps, perhaps even in cooperation with President Putin. Could it be that some people said, “better now than later”? Only time will tell.
In a statement, President-elect Donald Trump asserted on Saturday that the US should refrain from involving itself in the Syrian conflict. Trump’s comments, shared on his social media platform Truth Social, came as rebel forces continued their march to topple Mr. Assad. “Syria is a mess,” Mr. Trump proclaimed, emphasizing, “The United States should have nothing to do with it. This is not our fight. Let it play out. Do not get involved!”
The immediate consequences for the people of Syria, the inherent difficulties of establishing law and order after a violent regime change, and the challenges for the region aside, President Assad’s ouster is a remarkable achievement for Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Israel has long been at peace with Egypt and Jordan. It has succeeded in establishing diplomatic relations with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan under the Abraham Accords. Thus its principal regional adversary became Iran. Syria under frequent Israeli air raids was not a threat to Israel, but only a land bridge between Tehran and Hezbollah. Now that bridge is closed to traffic. Yesterday, Israel pushed tanks over the border into the buffer zone with Syria “to prevent a spillover from the turmoil there” but declared its intention to stay out of the conflict engulfing its neighbor”. Let us hope that Mr. Netanyahu, prioritizing his political survival over everything else, will not overplay his hand.
The prevalent view of the Middle East is that Egypt is the center of the Arab world. Indeed, Egypt is an important regional actor. It has been home to great civilizations and enjoys regional outreach. However, the heartland of the Arab nation was always Syria and Iraq, the home of the Abbasid and Umayyad Empires, and the birthplace of the Baathist ideology based on Arab nationalism, pan-Arabism, and Arab socialism with elements of secularism, despite ups and downs in relations between Damascus and Baghdad. Iraq was dealt a severe blow in 2003 and is still trying to recover from the impact of the US invasion and Syria, since 2011, has been engaged in a costly internal conflict. In brief, it became an easier target for the West’s “remaking of the Middle East” project.
The West’s objective is not a reunited but a divided Syria, at best a federation. But the immediate question is who would lead such a transformation? Hayat Tahrir al-Sham? Surely in the short, but even in the long run, bringing together a Syrian leadership committed to national reconciliation would be a huge challenge even if that happens to be the publicly declared intention.
Russia, like the war in Ukraine, appears to look at the question of Syria in the broad context of its relationship with the US. It is worth mentioning that the rebel offensive started on November 27 and on December 6, only ten days after the fall of Aleppo, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that Moscow is open to holding an honest dialogue with the US.
Russia’s military and diplomatic response to the HTS blitzkrieg was moderate leading some to speculate that there was an understanding between Moscow and Washington. Such speculation cannot be discarded right off. The rebels, except for a few air raids by Russian and Syrian warplanes, marched easily toward Damascus, mostly firing in the air in celebration showing they were not short of ammunition. Thus, one may say that Moscow gave up on President Assad, but giving up on Syria would be more difficult. The port of Tartus, a key hub for the Russian navy in the Mediterranean, and the air base in Latakia are strategic assets for Russia. Giving up those will be a setback for President Putin. Yesterday, Steve Rosenberg, BBC Russia editor, reported: “Fall of Assad is a blow to Russia’s prestige.” Yes, like the US exit from Afghanistan.
Looking at President Assad’s downfall from Türkiye’s perspective, one cannot ignore the challenges ahead. It has long been clear that the US and Israel, two steadfast allies, and the UK and France, former colonial powers in the Middle East, support Kurdish aspirations across the region. The Kurdistan Region is an autonomous region in federal Iraq. It borders Syria to the west, Iran to the east, and Türkiye to the north.
Today, the Kurdish People’s Defense Units (YPG) and the Democratic Union Party of Syria (PYD) dominate northeastern Syria, east of the Euphrates River. Ankara considers them as offshoots of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), thus terrorists. However, the YPG and affiliated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) enjoy the support of the West. Thus, the US and Israel could at least be after the recognition of an autonomous Kurdistan Region in Syria under the authority of these groups. This would make the autonomous Kurdish regions of Iraq and Syria neighbors to the satisfaction of the West.
Interestingly, in recent times, Turkish headlines focused more on the leader of the Nationalist Movement Party, the principal partner of Türkiye’s governing AKP, Mr. Devlet Bahçeli, than the government. In an address to his party’s parliamentary group on December 3, after attacking the YPG and its external supporters, he said that Türkiye fully respects Syria’s political and territorial integrity; however, the Syrian Arab Republic squeezed between Latakia and Damascus, with two-thirds of its territory out of its control is now a country on the respiratory device; that Assad has refused the hand extended by Türkiye but it is still not too late for him to enter into dialogue with Ankara without preconditions and go for the normalization of relations in the interest of his and his country’s interest; that Türkiye has no ambitions over the territory of other countries; that Syria belongs to the Syrians; Syria must adopt a constitutional system of democracy. But then, he went on to say:
“We sincerely wish Aleppo to find peace and calm.
“In line with our political morals, we must also declare before our nation that there is not a single Turkish patriot whose heart would not start beating when he hears the word “Aleppo”.
“Because Aleppo is Turkish and Muslim.”[i]
A month ago, Mr. Bahçeli triggered political confusion by calling on the authorities to allow PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan to come to the Turkish parliament, to address the Peoples’ Equality and Democracy Party (DEM) group and declare that terror is over. After a few days, President Erdoğan endorsed his remarks without getting into specifics.
Because of what Mr. Bahçeli said about Aleppo, it was a relief to hear President Erdoğan saying on Sunday that Türkiye does not have eyes on even one single pebble of any country, let alone their land, and that all Türkiye wishes for Syria is only peace, stability and calm it has longed for over the past thirteen years.[ii] (emphasis added)
For a few days, after the HTS offensive, the AKP leadership was silent on the developments in Syria. The only high-level statement came from Foreign Minister Fidan. He said that Türkiye is not involved in the clashes in Syria and is taking the necessary measures to prevent an influx of refugees.
However, when asked about the latest developments in Syria last Friday, President Erdoğan, recalling that Türkiye had called on Assad for talks, said: “We unfortunately didn’t receive a positive response from Assad. As of now, Idlib, Hama and Homs; and the target is of course Damascus. This march of the opposition continues at the moment. We are following it through both intelligence and media. It is our hope that, I will say that may this march in Syria continue without any accidents and troubles.” In response to a question about Amnesty International’s report on Israel’s genocide in Gaza, President Erdoğan also drew attention to Israel’s attempts to dodge the decisions issued against it by international courts and further stressed that countries of the world as well as the whole humanity must hold Israel accountable for the massacres and genocides it commits.[iii]
That Ankara endorsed the anti-Assad offensive is a certainty. How much it was involved in its planning and execution and with whom it partnered is a question. The current mood appears to be one of anxiety.
Last Friday, asked at the 22nd Doha Forum about the role of Türkiye in the latest developments in Syria, Foreign Minister Lavrov said:
“They are a very influential actor in Syria, and I think you know this. They are concerned with the security of their border with Syria. We discussed it in Astana format and in the context of Astana plus Syria discussions on normalizing relations between Türkiye and Damascus.
“And there is a series of ideas which we want to put into practice to keep Syria territorially integral and united while ensuring the security of the border, which has been porous for terrorist attacks on the territory of Türkiye.”
His remarks signal that whatever the differences were over Syria, Russia wishes to maintain its cooperation with Ankara. In the months and perhaps years ahead, the principal challenge for Türkiye would be putting relations with the US back on track. The US will “support Syria’s neighbors, including Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and Israel, should any threat arise from Syria during this period of transition,” President Biden said during his remarks at the White House yesterday. Regardless of what he meant by “any threat from Syria” and “US support” he did not mention Türkiye, sharing a 910-kilometer border with Syria.
Many capitals, including Ankara, have called for a peaceful transition in Syria. Türkiye’s Foreign Minister has even mentioned the return home of Syrian refugees. As a matter of fact, some of them were already on their way back to Syria either to take part in the offensive or celebrate the HTS victory.
The US State Department had listed Al-Julani as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist” in May 2013, and four years later announced a $10 million reward for information leading to his capture. During the past few days, he gave interviews to The New York Times and CNN. A BBC article carried the title, “From Syrian jihadist leader to rebel politician: How Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani reinvented himself”.
Regional countries and major powers must do their very best to encourage the “rebels” to bring peace to their country and not prove the Syrian version of the Taliban.
[i]https://www.mhp.org.tr/htmldocs/mhp/5370/mhp/Milliyetci_Hareket_Partisi_Genel_Baskani_Sayin_Devlet_BAHCELI__nin_TBMM_Grup_Toplantisinda_yapmis_olduklari_konusma_metni_3_A.html
[ii] https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/155768/-our-wish-is-for-our-neighbor-syria-to-rapidly-attain-peace-and-stability-
[iii] https://www.tccb.gov.tr/en/news/542/155768/-our-wish-is-for-our-neighbor-syria-to-rapidly-attain-peace-and-stability-