The Year 2024 in Review
People aspire to democracy. Regardless of their respect for fundamental rights and freedoms, and the rule of law, all regimes claim to be democratic in some form because it remains the ultimate source of legitimacy to govern. Sadly, the year 2024 was not an inspiring year for democracy.
Western democracy has faced some challenges during the past decades.
Interventions in the Middle East not only adversely affected the West’s public discourse on democracy but also led to the questioning of violations of international law. Furthermore, the economic difficulties gave rise to strong criticism of the economic order on both sides of the Atlantic. Long before, but especially since the collapse of communism, the free-market economy had become the twin sister of democracy. In other words, failures of the free market system also harmed the perception of democracy.
The collapse of communist ideology was rightly celebrated. In retrospect, however, there was a downside to it. Despite its failures, communist ideology’s public discourse on social justice, and equitable income distribution had a sobering effect on the West’s socioeconomic policies. With that gone, the capitalist system started to display its excesses. The European center-left lost ground. The middle class started thinning out. The far-right kept gaining ground. In the US, the top one percent’s share of national income went up.
The 20072008 financial crisis, the impact of globalization, lower levels of employment, relations between big business and politics, and dwindling incomes led to a widening fault line between groups considered “the governing elites” and a majority heretofore silent and grudgingly reconciled with the current state of affairs.
Paul Krugman’s final column in The New York Times, “Finding Hope in an Age of Resentment” is a worth-reading summary of the past two decades.[i]
Recently, Germany and France have been engulfed in political crises. Romania’s constitutional court annulled the first round of the country’s 2024 presidential election. Georgia is in political turmoil. In Argentina, the far-right president Javier Milei is in power. The declaration of martial law by South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol created havoc, and the National Assembly impeached him in a second vote. In the broad Middle East, there is zero hope for democratic governance.
On the international scene, the year 2024 was largely dominated by the wars in Ukraine, Gaza, and Lebanon, and lastly the downfall of the Assad dynasty. The US and its European allies continued providing Ukraine with economic and military assistance. Their motto remained “as long as it takes”. In mid-2024 attention started to shift toward the US elections.
For most of the year, the grinding war in Ukraine continued with the Russians gaining territory. Then came further escalation. On November 17, following Russia’s launch of more than two hundred missiles and drones at Ukraine, President Biden authorized Ukraine to use ballistic missiles, or ATACMS, for strikes limited to the Kursk region of western Russia. In the following days, Ukrainian armed forces fired ATACMS and British Storm Shadow missiles into the area. President Biden also authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Kyiv drawing criticism from arms control groups since this was a violation of the “Ottawa Convention” or the “Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty”.
On November 21, Russia launched a new intermediate-range ballistic missile hitting Ukraine’s city of Dnepropetrovsk. The missile fired by Russia, dubbed “Oreshnik”, carried multiple warheads, known as “multiple independently targeted reentry vehicles”, and was nuclear-capable. That marked the end of Kyiv’s use of ATACMS. In brief, the recent escalation in the war in Ukraine has benefitted Russia and left Ukraine with increasingly tough choices ahead of Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. So far, Mr. Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire and diplomatic talks between Kyiv and Moscow with growing speculation on Ukraine’s loss of territory. President Zelensky’s political future seems uncertain.
The collapse of the regime in Syria was a huge setback for Moscow leading to uncertainty over the future of Russian air and navy bases in Syria, strategic assets for Russia. Days later, Washington transferred a $20 billion loan to Ukraine backed by Russian assets. The G7 nations had finalized, earlier in the year, a plan to give Ukraine a $50 billion loan using Russia’s frozen central bank assets. Thus, President Putin would likely push even more for what he can present to the people of Russia as a victory in Ukraine.
There is no doubt that President Putin is upset with Ankara’s partnerships and role in ensuring the fall of President Assad but, aware of the underlying difficulties in Türkiye-West relations, he would bid for time.
As for the Middle East, Mr. Netanyahu’s far-right government enjoyed the unreserved support of the Biden administration throughout the year. The US presidential election, the military exchanges between Iran and Israel, the escalation in the war in Ukraine, and finally the downfall of President Assad were welcome distractions for Prime Minister Netanyahu to continue striking Gaza and Lebanon at no cost. The death toll in Gaza has reached 45,000. The figure for Lebanon’s dead is above 4,000. And since Mr. Trump has been a strong supporter of Israel all along, the Israeli Prime Minister had few worries, if any, about the upcoming change at the White House.
The hostage-prisoner exchange talks are still going on the 347th day of Israel’s longest war, but by all indications, this remains a distant possibility.
On November 21, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant saying that the conduct of the war in Gaza amounts to a “war crime of starvation as a method of warfare, crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
Mr. Netanyahu reacting to the ICC decision said, “It’s an antisemitic step that has one goal – to deter me, to deter us from having our natural right to defend ourselves against enemies who try to destroy us.” President Biden called the decision of the ICC “outrageous”. He was upset because the Court’s arrest warrants were also a sharp blow to the US. Globally, the Court’s decision was well received.
In Syria, after thirteen years of internal fighting, loss of life, and devastation, the five-decade-long Assad tyranny was swept away in barely two weeks. Syrians at home rightly celebrated. Syrians abroad also celebrated but understandably they would not be running home. The lightning speed of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’s (HTS) offensive was a huge surprise. The world is now waiting to see what kind of a new regime will emerge in Damascus.[ii]
Israel was quick to take advantage of the power vacuum in Syria. The Israeli military immediately occupied the non-military zone in the Golan Heights. Israeli soldiers also took up positions deeper inside Syrian territory. Israeli air force carried out hundreds of airstrikes across the country, hitting Syria’s military bases, strategic weapon stockpiles, and its fleet. That there was not a word of protest from Hayat Tahrir al-Sham for days was another signal as to who stood behind the offensive.
Interestingly, the US, Türkiye, and Israel are “united” in fighting ISIS, designated as a terrorist group. They are also united in dealing with HTS, officially designated as a terrorist group, now treated as a liberator and legitimate partner in Syria. But they differ on PYD/YPG and Hamas. Whether they would find a way of accommodating one another regarding these two groups remains the immediate problem for the future of Turkish-US and Turkish-Israeli relations. Later, however, the question “How to deal with Iran?” may also come up on the trilateral agenda. Türkiye shares a 910-kilometer border with Syria, a 378-kilometer border with Iraq, and a 560-kilometer border with Iran. Consequently, it has a major stake in regional stability.
During the first few days of the HTS offensive, Ankara denied involvement and remained quiet. Later, President Erdoğan called the regime change “a magnificent victory.” “The most important thing was to talk to the Russians and Iranians to ensure that they didn’t enter the equation militarily. We had meetings with (them) and they understood,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told Türkiye’s NTV television. But the scale of the collapse of Assad’s forces took them by surprise. They quickly realized the game was up, that Assad “was no longer someone to invest in” and “there was no point anymore,” the Minister added.[iii] Developments in Syria gave the government a welcome distraction from Türkiye’s economic woes. The news of the reopening of the Turkish Embassy in Damascus was mostly given under the title, “flag hoisted”, the message of a victorious return. A day before, an IDF soldier had hoisted the Israeli flag in Al-Khader village in southern Syria.
Given the developments in Syria and their implications for the broad Middle East, Mr. Trump may invite President Erdoğan to Washington for his inauguration or a bilateral working visit soon after that for a “reset” in relations. Probably, to ensure Ankara’s cooperation in Syria, the US State Department announcement of Secretary Blinken to Ankara, mentioned Türkiye as a “valued NATO ally” for the first time in a long time. In surprising harmony, some Western news outlets have started referring to Türkiye as a major regional actor. And, Ursula von der Leyen, the President of the European Commission, is on her way to Ankara.
Mr. Netanyahu delivered the most striking remarks to the press on December 9, 2024. He said, “… we are changing the face of the Middle East. The State of Israel is establishing itself as a focus of strength in our region, the likes of which have not been seen for decades. Whoever cooperates with us, gains greatly. Whoever attacks us, loses greatly.”[iv]
In a nutshell, he was declaring that it is Israel calling the shots in the Middle East, not with rhetoric but with action. As proven by past developments, Mossad has a network of intelligence in Iran, and should their reports signal dangerous progress in Tehran’s nuclear program, Israel striking Iran’s nuclear facilities would become a stronger possibility.
As for Iran, its Axis of Resistance has crumbled. Its regional outreach has diminished. The following from Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones’ book titled, “Persians, The Age of the Great Kings” offers an interesting perspective into Iran’s evolution, particularly under the current regime:
“In 651 CE the Sasanian empire fell to the Arabs of the south, and Iran became an Islamic state. The new Muslim administration overturned millennia’s worth of Iranian political, social, and cultural institutions and traditions, as access to power meant that Iranians needed to adopt Arabism and Islam…
“The formation of the Islamic Republic of Iran under the leadership of Ayatollah Khamenei and the Muslim clergy set in motion a systematic butchering of Persia’s ancient past by shutting down archaeological digs throughout Iran, closing university history programs, and cordoning off all historical monuments, the theocratic regime began a bloodless crusade against Iran’s own past making the Muslim conquest of Persia by the Arabs the genesis of a new national chronology. The names Cyrus, Darius, and Xerxes were anathema and were expunged from school textbooks.”[v]
Iran could have taken a different path prioritizing, if not democracy, economic progress, higher levels of income, and better relations with the region. The emergence of Vietnam as a regional power, if not a democracy, after years of devastation, may offer an example to the countries of the Miserable East, who also under authoritarian rule, have accomplished none of that.
The 2024 US election resulted in a victory for Mr. Trump and the Republican Party. Democratic Party’s nominee Kamala Harris who never had the opportunity as Vice President to project herself as an emerging leader who could be the next resident of the White House joined the race too late. She only ran a 107-day presidential campaign, perhaps the shortest in US history. Thus, Mr. Trump emerged as the election winner, with more than “a small margin” as predicted. Mr. Biden was always interested in investing in his legacy. However, January 20, 2025, will be a day not of pride but disappointment for him. Americans may remember December 2024 as the “month of pardons”. President Trump may outmatch his predecessor.
When in office, President Trump would likely wish to put the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East behind and focus on China. The shift toward the Indo-Pacific has long been on Washington’s agenda but the Middle East developments and the two wars did not allow that.
During the Biden presidency, confining China policy continued within the limits imposed by the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Under the title “The Indo-Pacific Strategy”, the US State Department says:
“The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. As the most dynamic and fastest-growing region on earth, the Indo-Pacific is an essential driver of America’s future security and prosperity. The region is home to more than half the world’s population, and it accounts for 60 percent of global GDP as well as two-thirds of global economic growth. Trade between the United States and the Indo-Pacific region reached over $2 trillion in 2022, and the United States benefits from $956 billion in foreign direct investment from the Indo-Pacific. Our people-to-people ties bind us together – over two-thirds of international students in the United States are from the Indo-Pacific.”
Thus, it seems that the new Trump administration will continue strengthening Washington’s Indo-Pacific alliances but challenge Beijing more through the imposition of higher taxes on Chinese exports to the US, thus marking once again the end of the West’s past emphasis on free international trade, and perhaps the beginning of trade wars.
China, the world’s second major power has preferred to remain on the sidelines on the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East. Why not? After all, the war kept Russia bogged down in Ukraine, and the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East prevented the US from turning to the Indo-Pacific. US policy under President Nixon and Secretary Kissinger was engagement with Beijing. It aimed at preventing a China-Russia alliance. Since then, Washington’s policies have brought the two powers closer, if not in an alliance.
On December 10, President Xi Jinping, during his meeting with the leaders of major international economic organizations underscored that tariff wars, trade wars, and tech wars are against the trend of history and the laws of economics and produce no winners.
For Türkiye, 2024 was a difficult year, but with the continuing economic downturn, 2025 would prove a bigger challenge.
[i] https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/09/opinion/elites-euro-social-media.html?campaign_id=39&emc=edit_ty_20241211&instance_id=141928&nl=opinion-today®i_id=60473709&segment_id=185435&user_id=6e50439e867e4155600e5ebabac2aa22
[ii] https://diplomaticopinion.com/2024/12/09/the-hayat-tahrir-al-sham-blitzkrieg/#more-2629
[iii] https://www.arabnews.com/node/2583010/amp
[iv] https://www.gov.il/en/pages/spoke-press091224
[v] Lloyd Llewellyn-Jones, Persians, The Age of the Great Kings, (Wildfire, 2022), pages 381, 390.