Escalation in the War in Ukraine – Counting the Days
On November 17, 2024, the 998th day of Russia’s invasion, Russia launched more than 200 missiles and drones at Ukraine. The same day, President Biden, in a significant shift in US policy, authorized Ukraine to use ballistic missiles, or ATACMS, for strikes limited to the Kursk region of western Russia in response to North Korea’s deployment of troops to support Moscow’s war effort.
Tuesday, November 19, 2024, marked the 1000th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Ukrainian armed forces fired six ATACMS to strike targets in Russia for the first time.
Later in the day, President Putin lowered Russia’s threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Russia’s military doctrine, the system of principles of the armed defense of the state, stipulates the conditions for using nuclear weapons including battlefield ones. In particular, the amended doctrine expands the range of countries and military alliances subject to nuclear deterrence and the list of military threats that such deterrence is designed to counter. Moscow also reserves the right to consider a nuclear response to a conventional weapons attack threatening its sovereignty, a large-scale launch of enemy aircraft, missiles, and drones targeting Russian territory, their crossing of the Russian border, and an attack on its ally Belarus.[i]
Also on Tuesday, the 1000th day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, President Biden authorized the provision of antipersonnel land mines to Kyiv as Russian forces continued their advance throughout eastern Ukraine. This drew some criticism from arms control groups since it is against the provisions of the 1997 “Convention on the Prohibition of the Use, Stockpiling, Production and Transfer of Anti-Personnel Mines and on their Destruction”, shortly referred to as the “Ottawa Convention” or the “Anti-Personnel Mine Ban Treaty”.[ii]
Landmines come predominantly in two varieties: anti-personnel and anti-vehicle mines. Both have caused great suffering in the past and continue to kill and injure civilians long after conflicts have ended.
Anti-personnel mines are prohibited under the Ottawa Convention.
Under the Convention, every state party undertakes “never under any circumstances” to use anti-personnel mines or to “develop, produce, otherwise acquire, stockpile, retain or transfer to anyone, directly or indirectly, anti-personnel mines”. Today, the Convention has 164 State Parties. The US, Russia, China, India, and Pakistan are not State Parties to the Convention, Ukraine is.
Reportedly, Russia has deployed landmines extensively since the start of its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. A US defense official has told the BBC that Ukraine has pledged to use only mines remaining active for a limited time, and the US’s “non-persistent” mines differ from Russia’s as they become inert after a pre-set period, anywhere from four hours to two weeks. They are electrically fused and require battery power to detonate. Once the battery runs out, they do not detonate.
On Wednesday, the 1001st day of the Russian invasion, Ukraine fired British-French-made Storm Shadow missiles into Russia for the first time since the beginning of the conflict. Reportedly, up to 12 missiles struck a target believed to be a command headquarters in the village of Maryno. And, Washington announced another significant package of urgently needed weapons and equipment to Ukraine.
Yesterday, the 1002nd day of Russia’s invasion, Kyiv announced that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile at Ukraine, but a Western official reportedly said this was not an ICBM. Later in the day, President Putin confirmed that Moscow had used a new intermediate-range ballistic missile to hit one of Ukraine’s largest and most famous industrial complexes from the Soviet Union era, which continues to produce missiles and other armaments in the city of Dnepropetrovsk. The missile fired by Russia carried multiple warheads, was nuclear-capable, and constituted yet another warning by Moscow.
Some have seen the escalation as an effort to strengthen negotiation positions. After all, President-elect Mr. Trump promised a quick end to the war and will be at the White House on January 20, 2025, the 1062nd day of the Russian invasion.
Nonetheless, on Tuesday, fearing a Russian military response in the form of a significant air attack in response to Mr. Biden’s policy shifts regarding the use of ATACMS and the antipersonnel landmines, the US Embassy in Kyiv issued a security alert to US citizens in Ukraine saying that the Embassy will be closed and that the US citizens should immediately take shelter in the event an air alert. Spain also closed its Embassy for a day. Again this week, two underwater communications cables connecting Finland and Germany were cut. Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said that cutting the internet cables appeared to be a deliberate act of “sabotage.” And, Sweden, Finland, and Norway updated their advice for citizens preparing to survive war and other crises.
Thus some, perhaps also remembering the title of Professor Christopher Clark’s remarkable book, “The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914” are getting worried about the possibility of an “international armed conflict” between major powers.[iii]
On 17 March 2023, following an investigation of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued arrest warrants for Vladimir Putin, the president of Russia, and Maria Lvova-Belova, Russian Commissioner for Children’s Rights.
Yesterday, Pre-Trial Chamber I of the ICC rejected Israel’s challenges to the Court’s jurisdiction and issued arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and Hamas commander Mohammed Deif, whom the Israeli military has said was killed in an air strike in Gaza in July.[iv]
124 countries are parties to the Rome Statute that created the International Criminal Court, including all members of the European Union. A further 32 signed the treaty but did not pass it into domestic law. Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Gallant could be arrested if they traveled to a State Party to the Rome Statute.
Türkiye is not a signatory of the Statute.
The Court’s decision may somehow infuriate the people of Israel. But it also allows them to take a step back, control their anger, and judge with absolute calm, in the light of their past suffering, what has transpired in Gaza during the past 412 days, how the far-right government of Mr. Netanyahu has conducted the war with such loss of innocent lives and devastation rather than calling the Court’s decision “antisemitic” right off.
Tough times for Mr. Biden, with his arch-enemy and closest ally finding themselves in the same boat, and only fifty days at the White House.
[i]https://tass.com/politics/1875081
[ii] https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c20726y20kvt
[iii] https://time.com/6336897/israel-war-gaza-world-war-iii/
[iv] https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-state-palestine-icc-pre-trial-chamber-i-rejects-state-israels-challenges