A Brief Story of the Gaza Ceasefire Talks
The October 7 Hamas onslaught was a shock to Israel, but also to Washington because with the Abraham Accords, it seemed that the US could put its Middle East troubles behind and focus on its strategic competition with China and the war in Ukraine. Which power or powers could convince Israel of the need with growing urgency to put a stop to the current fighting? None other than the US, one would think. However, as I said in my last post, Prime Minister Netanyahu knows that no matter who is in the White House, he can manage Washington’s Middle East policy more than Washington can steer his conduct in the Gaza Strip. Moreover, with his appeals for a ceasefire, it appears now that President Biden is asking for a favor from Mr. Netanyahu, not the opposite.
So, a brief look at the past ten months:
Chapter 1: Unqualified Support for Israel.
From October 7 to the end of the year 2023, at least 20,000 Palestinians in Gaza were reported killed under Israeli bombing of the territory.[i] On January 18, Prime Minister Netanyahu claimed that Israel under his leadership will not compromise on less than total victory over Hamas, and they will win. “In any arrangement in the foreseeable future — with an arrangement or without one — Israel must have security control over all the territory west of the Jordan,” Mr. Netanyahu also said at a news conference, referring to the area that would supposedly belong to an independent Palestinian state. “This clashes with the idea of sovereignty. What can you do? The prime minister needs to be capable of saying no to our friends,” he declared.
During these three months, US and Western support for Israel was total, unquestionable.
By the end of February 2024, the Gaza death toll reached 30,000. The ferocity of the IDF response created a negative image of Israel in the Global South and triggered criticism even in the West. Until then, the US and its European partners had avoided any reference to a “ceasefire”. All that they were able to mention, rather reluctantly, were words such as “pause”, “truce”, and “suspension of hostilities”. The US counterproposal to the vetoed Algerian “immediate ceasefire” draft resolution, mentioned a temporary ceasefire “as soon as practicable”.
Chapter 2: Growing emphasis on humanitarian aid and starting to talk about a ceasefire.
On March 2, the US carried out its first airdrops of aid into Gaza, demonstrating its commitment to increasing humanitarian support. The general reaction to the airdrops was reserved. Many observers said this was a costly and inefficient way of delivering aid and could not compensate for the lack of adequate land deliveries.
On March 8, 2024, in his State of the Union Address, President Biden said: “I’ve been working non-stop to establish an immediate ceasefire that would last for six weeks to get all the prisoners released — all the hostages released and to get the hostages home and to ease the intolerable an- — humanitarian crisis and build toward an enduring — a more — something more enduring.
“The United States has been leading international efforts to get more humanitarian assistance into Gaza. Tonight, I’m directing the U.S. military to lead an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier in the Mediterranean on the coast of Gaza that can receive large shipments carrying food, water, medicine, and temporary shelters.
On April 26, 2024, the US military started building a large floating pier off Gaza’s coast to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid. Ships were to deliver aid from Cyprus to the pier from where it would be loaded onto trucks to transfer across Gaza. US officials said the pier would be operational by early May but there will be no US boots on the ground in Gaza.
Was the pier the only solution to the provision of humanitarian aid? No, there were land routes also but with the obstacles raised by Israel, Washington had to show that it remained fully engaged. The pier experienced many problems and the US permanently shut it down on 17 July, ending an ill-fated $230 million project beset from the very start by unrealistic expectations and logistical problems.[ii]
In the meantime, US military support to Israel continued unabated.
Chapter 3: Call for the three-phase ceasefire proposal.
On May 31, 2024, President Biden announced that after intensive diplomacy carried out by his team and his many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel had offered a comprehensive new three-phase proposal, a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire and the release of all hostages.[iii] In brief, he said:
“The first phase would last for six weeks and it would include a full and complete ceasefire; a withdrawal of Israeli forces from all populated areas of Gaza; a release of a number of hostages — including women, the elderly, and the wounded — in exchange for the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.
“During the six weeks of phase one, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities. But if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue.
“In phase two: There would be an exchange for the release of all remaining living hostages, including male soldiers; Israeli forces would withdraw from Gaza; and as long as Hamas lives up to its commitments, a temporary ceasefire would become, “in the words of the Israeli proposal”, “the cessation of hostilities permanently”.
“Finally, in phase three, a major reconstruction plan for Gaza would commence.”
Ten days later, came Secretary Blinken’s eighth trip to the region since the Hamas attack of October 7. Throughout his visit, he repeated that the ceasefire deal depended solely on Hamas’s agreement.
In remarks to the press on his first stop in Cairo, Secretary Blinken said that the proposal put forward by President Biden was endorsed by countries throughout the region, and around the world and the UN Security Council and Israel accepted it, adding, “And the only outlier in this moment – the only outlier in this moment – is Hamas. So my message to governments throughout the region, to people throughout the region is: If you want a ceasefire, press Hamas to say yes.”
In response to a question referring to the statement mentioned above by Prime Minister Netanyahu, Mr. Blinken said, “First, let me be clear: Israel has accepted the proposal. In fact, they were critical in putting it forward. So the only party that has not accepted, the only party that’s not said yes is Hamas. That’s who everyone is waiting on.”
In Tel-Aviv, he again said that everyone, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, agrees with the proposal, the only exception being Hamas.
On July 25, Prime Minister Netanyahu addressed the US Congress for the fourth time, the most of any foreign leader in history. He elaborated at length on the Hamas onslaught of October 7. He denied that Israel was deliberately starving the people of Gaza. He called such accusations “utter nonsense”, and “complete fabrication”. He also rejected the accusations about the IDF’s targeting of Gaza’s civilian population.
He said, “The day after we defeat Hamas, a new Gaza can emerge. My vision for that day is of a demilitarized and deradicalized Gaza. Israel does not seek to resettle Gaza. But for the foreseeable future, we must retain overriding security control there to prevent the resurgence of terror, to ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.”
In other words, he reiterated once again that the “two-state solution” is not and will never be on his agenda. Only days before Mr. Netanyahu visited the US, the Knesset had voted overwhelmingly for a resolution that rejected the establishment of a Palestinian state, even as part of a negotiated settlement with Israel.
Last week secretary Blinken paid his ninth trip to the region. On every occasion, he stressed that Israel had accepted the “bridging proposal”, and Hamas should do the same.
During his remarks to the press in Tel Aviv, on August 19, Mr. Blinken was asked if Mr. Netanyahu had accepted the permanent ceasefire; if he assured him that Israel would not add further demands to the current framework in the coming days.[iv]
The next day, in Doha, during his remarks to the press, Tom Bateman of the BBC asked him, “ You mentioned President Biden’s statement on May 31 which was explicitly clear that a permanent cessation of hostilities would involve the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. That sounded unequivocally clear. So how can any proposal or clause now that involves any form of Israeli presence on the ground be consistent with this framework?
“And just to expand on that, the Israeli media has quoted Prime Minister Netanyahu today as having said that Israel won’t leave the Philadelphi Corridor and the Netzarim Corridor regardless of the pressure to do so. ‘These are – he’s quoted as saying – strategic military and political assets. I told this to Blinken. Maybe I convinced him.’”[v]
As one might expect, the Secretary was not at ease in responding to those questions. To a certain extent, this is understandable. Indeed, there could never be an open and lasting commitment by Israel’s far-right government to an immediate, unconditional, and permanent ceasefire. But, in his May 31st remarks, President Biden had said, “During the six weeks of phase one, Israel and Hamas would negotiate the necessary arrangements to get to phase two, which is a permanent end to hostilities. But if the negotiations take longer than six weeks for phase one, the ceasefire will still continue as long as negotiations continue.” That must have meant, “until it becomes clear that Hamas is exploiting the ceasefire to regroup and prepare for another attack”.
Last Wednesday President Biden had another phone call with Prime Minister Netanyahu and stressed the urgency of bringing the ceasefire and hostage release deal to closure. Mr. Biden, with another four months at the White House, clearly wants this “deal” to materialize as the last achievement of his presidency. But Mr. Netanyahu may not be ready to offer him such a gift, preferring to wait and see, and keep pounding Gaza.
Beyond the talks about a ceasefire, the Gaza death toll is now above 40,000, over 16,000 of them children. According to UNICEF, a total of 143 Palestinian children have been killed in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, since October last year, a spike of nearly 250 percent compared to the preceding nine months, during which 41 Palestinian children were killed. As of April 8, 2024, the number of Palestinian deaths in the West Bank was 432. UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) says that between 7 October 2023 and 12 August 2024, according to the Israeli military and official Israeli sources cited in the media, more than 1,530 Israelis and foreign nationals were killed, the majority on 7 October and its immediate aftermath and including 330 soldiers killed in Gaza or along the border in Israel since the beginning of the ground operation. Lately, two new evacuation orders have been issued by the Israeli military; to date, about 84 percent of the Gaza Strip has been placed under evacuation orders.
Yet, reports about the ceasefire say that it remains “elusive”, and the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran must have put the Hamas leadership into a dilemma. Thus, one is tempted to ask, “For how long this ‘diplomatic theatre’ would continue?” Until the world knows who has emerged as the winner of the upcoming US presidential election? Until no buildings are left standing in Gaza? Until Yahya Sinwar is eliminated for good?
It seems that, with or without a ceasefire, the Gaza war would likely extend well into the next year, continuing to take its toll.
[i] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67764664
[ii] https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/analysis/2024/07/16/us-gaza-pier-close-after-costing-230-million-days-worth-aid
[iii] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-middle-east-2/
[iv] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-press-27/
[v] https://www.state.gov/secretary-antony-j-blinken-remarks-to-the-press-28/