Revisiting the Past
Last week witnessed some confusion over the future of the war in Gaza and the prospects for peace. Looking at what has transpired since the October 7 Hamas attack, this was no surprise. On Friday, President Biden announced that after intensive diplomacy carried out by his team and his many conversations with leaders of Israel, Qatar, Egypt, and other Middle Eastern countries, Israel has offered a comprehensive new proposal, a roadmap to an enduring ceasefire, and the release of all hostages.
He added that the people of Israel should know they can make this offer without any further risk to their security because they have devastated Hamas forces over the past eight months. He also said that there are those in Israel who will not agree with this plan and will call for the war to continue indefinitely, some are even in the government coalition; and he had urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal, despite whatever pressure comes.[i] Indeed, far-right parties soon vowed to bring down the government if Mr. Netanyahu were to back a hostage-ceasefire deal. Washington is still waiting for a response from Hamas.
Also on Friday, US House Speaker Mike Johnson sent Netanyahu a formal invitation to address a joint meeting of Congress. The letter was also signed by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. Senator Schumer had previously said that the Israeli leader had “lost his way” and was an obstacle to peace.
The next day, Prime Minister Netanyahu said, “Israel’s conditions for ending the war have not changed: the destruction of Hamas’s military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.” He also said that he had accepted an invitation to address a joint session of Congress.
No date has been set, but the visit is expected to take place “as soon as the next eight weeks or soon after August recess,” a source familiar with the matter told The Hill.[ii]
The invitation reminded me of another address by Mr. Netanyahu to Congress during President Obama’s second term. The invitation was extended by Republican House Speaker John Boehner in a rebuke to Mr. Obama’s Iran policy. This was a time when the negotiations on the JCPOA with Iran were moving forward and Mr. Obama had pledged to veto any new congressional sanctions against Iran.
It immediately became clear that Mr. Obama and Mr. Netanyahu would not meet. The Israeli side said that Mr. Netanyahu had not asked for a meeting with the US President. The White cited a “long-standing practice” of not meeting government leaders close to elections.
Thus, Mr. Netanyahu addressed a joint session of Congress on March 3, 2015. This was exactly two weeks before Israel’s legislative elections scheduled for March 17, 2015.
On that day, I watched Prime Minister Netanyahu’s speech to the Congress. The fact that he was able to address Congress during a visit organized with total disregard for diplomatic rules was evidence of American democracy’s profound attachment to the separation of powers, a fundamental principle of democracy. Moreover, the special relationship between Israel and the US, and the weight Israel carries in the US were well-known. Yet, no matter how strong and deep a relationship may be, no other Western democracy would have easily and knowingly allowed a foreign leader to challenge its government in its parliament. In Türkiye, separation of powers is unfortunately seen as an impediment to “effective government”.
The word “APPLAUSE” appeared 42 times in the transcript of Mr. Netanyahu’s address. Members of Congress rose repeatedly to give the Israeli leader a standing ovation.
Mr. Netanyahu’s speech was designed to galvanize the Congress. To make his case on the need to contain Iran, he said that Tehran was dominating four Arab capitals, Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana’a. He asked if Iran was gobbling up four countries right now when it is under sanctions, and how many more it may devour when sanctions are lifted. But later, in arguing for more pressure on Iran for a better deal, he said it was a vulnerable regime. He also mentioned the risks of regional nuclear proliferation. But his failure to propose an alternative to what he called “a bad deal” did not escape attention. Even so, his address has placed a cloud over the P5+1-Iran talks, and that cloud was not going to away easily regardless of the outcome.
Israel’s elections were held on March 17, 2015. In a speech to jubilant supporters in Tel Aviv after Tuesday’s polls closed, Mr. Netanyahu described the vote as a “great victory” for Likud.
On July 14, 2015, the P5+1 (China, France, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), the European Union (EU), and Iran reached a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program would be exclusively peaceful.
On November 9, 2016, Donald Trump was elected President.
Then came Prime Minister Netanyahu’s visit to the Trump White House on February 15, 2017. There the two leaders addressed guests and the international media. They spoke for 47 minutes. During those 47 minutes, there were 71 applause, most of them standing. There were no Palestinian leaders present. Even the Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz was not visible. It was all about President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and their being family.
Mr. Netanyahu mentioned President Truman as the first world leader to recognize the State of Israel after the Declaration of Independence in 1948 but called Mr. Trump “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”. At the time I said that Israelis could be pleased with the so-called “deal of the century” but may prefer to reserve judgment on embracing President Trump as their greatest-ever friend in the White House.
On December 6, 2017, President Trump formally recognized Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and stated that the American embassy would be moved from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
Six months later, on 8 May 2018, he announced that the US would pull out of the JCPOA. “It is clear to me that we cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” Trump said from the White House Diplomatic Room. “The Iran deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we know exactly what will happen.” He declared he was making the world safer. But he also deepened his isolation on the world stage, leading to doubts about American credibility. Other signatories of the JCPOA reacted.
As I have mentioned in recent posts, Mr. Netanyahu could be thinking of continuing the war in Gaza in different ways depending on the battlefield requirements, lowering the loss of life among Gazans, keeping the talks over hostage-prisoner exchange and humanitarian aid alive, and thus gaining time until the upcoming US presidential election that might pave the way for a second family visit to the Trump White House.
Would Mr. Netanyahu have extensive talks with President Biden when he is in Washington to address Congress? Surely. No wonder, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer was also among those who signed the letter of invitation to Mr. Netanyahu. Would he reject the Biden administration’s calls for a ceasefire in Gaza and the two-state solution like he berated the Obama administration’s Iran policy? No. On the contrary, he would express appreciation for their ironclad support. He would focus on Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” and Hamas being part of it and urge all Americans to give Israel unqualified support as their most trustworthy ally in the world. Would he meet with Mr. Trump? Probably. Would he say things that could be interpreted as support for Mr. Trump? No, he would be extremely careful but would not be able to prevent speculation.
On his return to Israel, he will single-mindedly go after victory in Gaza, regardless of the difficulties in defining what would constitute a “victory”, and his political survival.
[i] https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/31/remarks-by-president-biden-on-the-middle-east-2/
[ii] https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4697023-benjamin-netanyahu-israel-hamas-gaza-congress-mike-johnson-chuck-schumer-hakeem-jeffries-mitch-mcconnell/