Growing Concerns Over Israel’s Rafah Offensive
Until yesterday, international attention was focused on the pending Israeli offensive on Rafah and the domestic political challenges facing Prime Minister Netanyahu. On Sunday, however, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials died in a helicopter crash on their way back home from Azerbaijan. How this tragedy would impact the extremely complicated Middle East picture remains to be seen.
The war in Gaza, now in its seventh month, continues with no end in sight. Aid deliveries began arriving at the US-built pier off the Gaza Strip last Friday. In the meantime, Israeli troops are fortifying a strategic corridor that carves Gaza in two, reaching the Mediterranean where the US floating pier is. President Biden had issued a warning to Israel that his administration would stop supplying bombs and artillery shells if its military were to push ahead with an offensive on Rafah. Reportedly, however, the Biden administration informally notified Congressional committees last week that it plans to move ahead with more than $1 billion in weapons deals for Israel. The IDF is getting ready, step by step, to launch military operations in Rafah. Prime Minister Netanyahu is being criticized for not sharing his vision of post-war Gaza with the people of Israel and the world, raising questions regarding the future of the Israeli government.
In an interview with CNBC on May 15, Mr. Netanyahu acknowledged disagreements with the Biden administration and said, “We have to do what we have to do,” which includes retaking all of Gaza. “You can’t leave Hamas there and talk about the day after because we’re not going to have a day after.” Rejecting the “two-state solution”, he also said that a path forward in Gaza might be Palestinian administration, similar to what now exists on the West Bank, with Israel retaining “certain sovereign powers,” including all military and security functions and control over what and who crosses Gaza’s borders.[i] Moreover, a recent New York Times article titled “The Unpunished: How Extremists Took Over Israel” by Ronen Bergman and Mark Mazzetti shed further light on Israel’s settlement policy in the West Bank and Gaza and the inherent difficulties in overcoming the extreme polarization between two peoples.[ii]
The US presidential election to be held on November 5, 2024, is less than six months away. Is it possible for Prime Minister Netanyahu to play for time to ensure a victorious return to a new Trump White House? Can he somehow cope with domestic dissatisfaction regarding the Israeli hostages and international criticism for restrictions on humanitarian aid and the continuing loss of civilian life in Gaza? And would the IDF be more careful to avoid a second tidal wave of civilian casualties, among them thousands of women and children, thus putting Israel’s Western allies in an even more difficult position?
Perhaps, because in late January 2020, Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Washington. Before a select audience at the White House, President Trump and Mr. Netanyahu spoke for 47 minutes. During those 47 minutes, there were 71 applauses, most of them standing. There were no Palestinian leaders present. Even the Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz was not visible. It was all about President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu and their being family.
The whole thing was an intervention in Israeli domestic politics before the March 2 Israeli election by “Donald” in favor of “Bibi”, as they like to call each other to emphasize the special bond between them. Mr. Netanyahu mentioned President Truman as the first world leader to recognize the State of Israel after the Declaration of Independence in 1948 but called Mr. Trump “the greatest friend that Israel has ever had in the White House”.
Summing up the unveiling of the “deal of the century”, officially called “Peace to Prosperity”, the Jerusalem Post editorial of January 31 echoed Prime Minister Netanyahu:
“The “Deal of the Century” is the biggest diplomatic gift an American administration has ever given to the Jewish state since its founding.
“Even without reading its contents, one could see during the unveiling at the White House on Tuesday that this plan was orchestrated in tight cooperation with Israel. President Donald Trump’s gestures and comments during the announcement said it all: This is a pro-Israel plan.” [iii]
I said at the time that Israelis may be pleased with the “deal of the century”, but they are likely to reserve judgment on embracing President Trump as their greatest-ever friend in the White House. Indeed, Mr. Netanyahu did not emerge as the winner of the March 2, 2020, election. However, a political survivor, he is back at the helm of the Israeli government for the sixth time.
When I watched the unveiling of the so-called “deal of the century”, like many others, I could not help remembering the ceremony held on the White House lawn on September 13, 1993, following the signing of the Oslo Accords with President Clinton standing between PLO leader Yasser Arafat and Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, the two adversaries shaking hands.
Yes, the Oslo Accords did not lead to lasting peace but the difference between the atmospherics of the two days, and the two ceremonies was striking. These Accords had raised hopes at the time, whereas the unveiling of the “deal of the century” hardly stirred any international optimism. Thus, President Mahmoud Abbas immediately said that he was cutting all ties, including security coordination, with both Israel and the US. And, the Arab League rejected the Trump peace plan saying that it does not meet the minimum rights and aspirations of the Palestinian people.
Palestinians are not alone in worrying about Mr. Trump’s return to the White House. On May 11, in comments that should have deeply worried the Zelensky administration, he again said that he would settle the war in Ukraine in a day, 24 hours.[iv] His remarks, however, must have created “mixed feelings” in European capitals.
As for Türkiye, “Do not think that Israel will stop in Gaza,” President Erdogan told his AKP party group of lawmakers last week. And “… if it is allowed to succeed in defeating Hamas in the Gaza Strip, this rogue and terrorist state will set its sights on Anatolia sooner or later, as part of the promised land,” he continued.
“We will continue to stand by Hamas, which fights for the independence of its own land, and as Türkiye’s forward defense,” he added.
President Erdogan could not have been referring to Israel’s own territorial ambitions on Turkish territory. But if he had in mind Israel’s possible reaction to Ankara’s support for Hamas in other ways or its lasting enmity towards Türkiye, he is, without a shadow of a doubt, right.
As for the reflection of Ankara’s stance on the war in Gaza on our relations with Washington, needless to say, this has further burdened an already problematic relationship. But with a second Trump White House relations may get even worse. After all, President Trump was the one who sent his Turkish counterpart the most undiplomatic letter in the history of the Republic.
Yesterday, May 19, 2024, was the 105th anniversary of Atatürk’s landing at the Turkish Black Sea city of Samsun to launch the War of Independence against the victors of the First World War. The people of Türkiye are eternally grateful to him not only for leading us to victory but also for his enlightened leadership, and his fundamental reforms which carried our country to the contemporary age. He will remain our source of inspiration forever.